With Uzbek Unrest, Unease in the U.S.

Concern Grows Over Repression by Ally

About 300 people were killed in last week's bloody crackdown in Uzbekistan, the U.S. government has privately concluded, confirming the country's worst outbreak of violence since independence 14 years ago and presenting a challenge to U.S. policymakers who have embraced its autocratic leadership.

The unrest in Uzbekistan, a volatile former Soviet republic and a key U.S. ally in the war on terrorism, has left Washington unsure how to respond. The administration yesterday called for an international investigation and is trying to arrange a meeting of European powers and Uzbekistan's Central Asian neighbors to keep the rest of the region calm.

Senior U.S. officials have met with Uzbek representatives in recent days to deliver a stern private message to President Islam Karimov, warning that he faces being toppled if he does not ease domestic repression. "That may be the trajectory you're on," one senior administration official described as the thrust of the message. "Your only way out of this may be to get in front of social discontent."

The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive situation, added that the actions of Karimov's government were "barbaric and indicative of the problems that Karimov has created for himself" through his suppression of political dissent. "Right now I don't feel comfortable getting too close to him because this is horrible what he did," the official said, "so what we need to do is contain the disease to Uzbekistan for a while."

At a briefing yesterday with visiting British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw -- who has been highly critical of Karimov -- Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the United States will hold all countries "equally responsible" on human rights practices "without regard to what else might be going on in our relationship."

She added: "It is quite clear that a lot of people lost their lives, and that is always a cause for concern." But in a nod of sympathy for Karimov's battle with Islamic extremists, she said that Washington would not ask any ally "to deal with terrorists."

The administration has struggled to balance its alliance with Karimov with its distaste for his domestic record ever since shortly after Sept. 11, 2001, when the United States established a military base in Uzbekistan. Hosting more than 1,000 U.S. troops, the base in Khanabad supports operations in Afghanistan, about 90 miles to the south. The United States has also transported suspected terrorists to Uzbekistan as part of its "rendition" program, despite documented torture by the government.

Already internally divided over its ties with Uzbekistan, administration officials must decide whether to abandon or try to save a friendly but repressive government that appears to be teetering, according to analysts.

"This is a big mess for the U.S. because we've seen this coming for a long time," said Fiona Hill, a specialist in the region at the Brookings Institution. "People have been saying for a while now that instead of being a strategic asset, Uzbekistan has become a strategic liability."

Last week's violence broke out in the eastern city of Andijan in the heart of the Fergana Valley, a longtime hotbed of Islamic extremism marked also by economic hardship. Armed militants angered by the prosecution of 23 local businessmen attacked a prison and set them free along with about 2,000 other inmates, including some linked to the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, a radical group affiliated with al Qaeda and the Taliban.

The prison assault coincided with gathering demonstrations as thousands of people tumbled into the streets to register anger with the region's crushing poverty and Karimov's government. Among the civilians milling in the city's central square were militants and liberated prisoners, some of them armed, according to reports from the region.

The exact sequence of events that followed remains murky because Uzbekistan has kept out foreign journalists and nongovernmental organizations. By some accounts, extremists holding 10 police officers hostage were fired upon by soldiers, killing the police as well as their captors. Witnesses and human rights organizations reported that troops opened fire on the crowd, killing hundreds of civilians, including women and children -- some at close range.