Senate Leaders Prepare for Crucial Filibuster Vote

The two leaders have maintained a collegial relationship. Many Democratic senators and senior aides describe Reid as somewhat sympathetic to Frist, believing the Republican leader has backed himself into a corner by demanding confirmation votes for all nominees, and will face widespread backlash from conservative religious groups if he backs away. Reid, in turn, would catch heat from liberal groups if he compromised, but he has less to lose than Frist, who needs conservative support if he pursues the White House.

One of the big obstacles to deal-making is that there is not much political wiggle room. Frist has demanded an up-or-down vote on all court nominees, but Reid refuses to relinquish the right to filibuster because Democrats may want to use it against Bush's Supreme Court picks. An inability to reconcile the demands shut down bilateral talks between the two leaders a week ago, and the same problem confronts the 12 freelance negotiators.

All last week, the negotiators passed proposals back and forth in an attempt to find middle ground. But the two leaders weighed in between meetings to remind the negotiators of the bottom line. On a conference call after a Thursday afternoon meeting, as rumors swirled that a deal was near, Reid repeated his mantra, "No nuclear option." He called a second meeting Thursday of all his Democratic troops, where negotiators reported to their colleagues that Republicans could not take the nuclear option off the table, because Frist would not let them.

Frist, for his part, talks to his GOP colleagues in every forum possible -- on the phone, on the floor, in small meetings, one-on-one in his office. Eric Ueland, his chief of staff, said the leader "has not made this a test of party loyalty," nor has he offered legislative or campaign favors to keep wavering Republicans in line. "There are times and places where those tools might be appropriate," Ueland said. "But on an issue that so directly goes to the core responsibilities of the United States Senate, none of those tools are appropriately applicable."

Every morning last week, Reid stopped by Frist's office or at least called the GOP leader, just to check in. Aides say the Nevada Democrat deals regularly with two other Republicans: Whip Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), the chief Republican negotiator in the compromise talks.

Reid also has named key Democrats as emissaries to the three Republicans that both sides consider the swing voters. Sen. Patrick J. Leahy (Vt.), the ranking Democrat on the Judiciary Committee, is working on Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.), chairman of the panel and a co-sponsor with Leahy of a complicated asbestos bill working its way through the Senate. Sen. Carl M. Levin (D-Mich.) is assigned to Sen. John W. Warner (R-Va.), and Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.) has been teamed with Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine). Warner chairs the Armed Services Committee, and Collins chairs the Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee; Levin and Lieberman are the ranking Democrats on those panels.

Democrats have fretted that, despite Specter's and Warner's seniority, Republicans could threaten them with the loss of their chairmanships if they abandon Frist on the rule-change vote. Just in case, Reid's office has consulted with the Senate parliamentarian, aides said, and determined that the act of removing the senators from their posts would be subject to a Democratic filibuster. Warner, Collins and Specter said they have not been threatened, and Ueland said of the idea, "Not only has it not happened, it's a completely silly idea hatched by the same conspiracists" who believe in UFOs.

Beyond their regular appearances on the Senate floor, the two leaders have relied on their colleagues and outside groups to stir up drama. That is a tall order when the subject is an arcane constitutional question, and with little room for creativity, the events at times seemed weirdly synchronized.

For instance, Wednesday's theme was women. Several female Democratic House members accompanied Sens. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) in a march to the Senate floor to protest the nominations of Owen and Janice Rogers Brown. They sat on a staff bench at the back of the chamber and chatted for a few minutes, then left. Later, female Republicans held their own news conference, with Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite (R-Fla.) saying: "Mr. Reid, tear down that glass ceiling for these very highly qualified women!"

On Thursday, Reid met with Congressional Black Caucus members who endorsed the filibusters even though one of the targets -- Brown of California -- is black. "The filibuster was systematically used when Senate minority rights meant the denial of the rights of African Americans," Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-D.C.) told reporters. Hours later, Frist joined black ministers who support the proposed rule change. "Why are they afraid to put a black woman on the court?" asked Bishop Harry Jackson of Hope Christian Church in Lanham.

Whether a showdown will come rests with the dozen negotiators -- six from each party -- struggling for a compromise. And no one seems certain how it will play out.

If no compromise is reached, "I believe we'll have the votes" to ban judicial filibusters, McConnell told CBS's "Face the Nation" yesterday.

Others were less certain. "I don't know" if Frist can muster the 51 needed votes, said McCain, a key negotiator who opposes the rule change. He told "Fox News Sunday" that several senators have not signaled "exactly how they're going to vote," and that a bipartisan deal remains "entirely possible." But he warned that tonight will mark the "last opportunity."