These Are the Times That Try a Nats Fan's Soul

See, isn't that helpful?

The malevolent core of all slumps is that the harder you try to escape, the worse they get. That's why old-time managers sometimes ordered their teams to go get drunk or else pulled lineups out of a hat.

So, it's time to panic, right? The Nats are doomed to revert to the '04 Expos and lose 95 games.

Actually, no.

Focusing on the immediate and obvious does not generally produce a knowledgeable fan. The trends that matter in a long season require a broader view than a week's games. For example, hard as it is to believe, right now nothing structural is actually wrong with the Nationals. All of the core parts of the team are in working order, though there's rubble everywhere else.

The current starting rotation, all reasonably healthy, of Livan Hernandez, Esteban Loaiza, Tony Armas Jr., Tomo Ohka and Patterson has a combined ERA of 3.68 in 38 starts. Most teams would take that. The bullpen of Chad Cordero, Luis Ayala, Gary Majewski and Hector Carrasco has an ERA of 1.87 in 82 innings. Tucker is back. That's 10 useful pitchers. If Hernandez's gimpy knee blows out, the whole building will probably collapse. But until then, this is a perfectly good pitching staff.

What about the Nats' offense? The team's best hitter, Jose Vidro, was hurt two days before the Slump arrived -- hardly a coincidence. And he won't be back for a couple of weeks.

While Vidro is missed, most teams have a key player injured after nearly 50 games. Who stays whole? On Tuesday, the Nats actually fielded their Opening Day lineup, except for Vidro. And Jamey Carroll, hitting .275, is as good a utility replacement as any team could want. So, if the Nats claim injury as an excuse for their hitting slump, it won't wash.

So what's happened to the spunky Nats who left the town abuzz with a 23-18 record last week? The truth is mundane but, in a way, reassuring. In April, the Nats hit over their heads. On one day, five regulars were between .300 and .380. Riiiight.

Now, where are they? Every significant Washington player, except shortstop Cristian Guzman, is hitting so close to his normal level that -- with just one 0-for-4 or 3-for-4 game -- you could adjust everyone's batting average, slugging average and on-base percentage to exactly where they should be. Even platoon players fit the mold. Every hitter is back at square one.

In spring training, Robinson said, "This team is going to play a lot of 4-3 games." That has proved true. When the Nats hit decently, especially in the clutch, they play better than .500 ball. When they hit poorly, as they have recently, they play worse. But, so far, the team's consistent ingredients -- overall pitching, defense, morale and managing -- have held up as expected.

The Nationals' test this season may be their ability to cope with their obvious flaw -- an offense that is adequate to the team's 75-to-85-win aspirations, but barely so. Will team slumps, like the current one, drive 'em nuts? Or will they ride 'em out?

A bad team collapses in the face of hard times and loses almost every game until it finally bottoms out. Last year, the Expos had streaks of 0-8, 1-9, 1-8, 0-7, 1-6 and 1-7: a combined 4-45. That's how you kill a season.

Every team "goes bad." The trick is not to go absolutely and totally terrible. That's the exam the Nats face now.

Odd as it sounds, if they went 4-6 in the next 10 tough games, it might be one of the best parts of their season, not one of their worst.

This is the kind of crossroads where the old Expos fell apart.

And it's the sort of place where the new Nationals might want to begin a different history.