By Matthew Mosk and John Wagner
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, May 29, 2005

Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele insists he hasn't decided whether he should join the race for U.S. Senate, but he is becoming increasingly isolated in that regard.

Both state and national Republican leaders said in interviews last week that they see in him the party's strongest and perhaps only shot of capturing the seat being vacated by Sen. Paul S. Sarbanes, the retiring five-term Democrat. They have been gently prodding Steele to commit to the 2006 race.

In an unusual lapse of protocol, Maryland Republican Party Chairman John Kane jumped ahead of the potential candidate Thursday to announce that he expects Steele will soon form an exploratory committee.

"It's his call, but I'm excited about the prospects of his campaign," Kane said. "He represents the best hope of the Republican Party to win that seat."

Republican strategists and elected officials appear to have forged a consensus on the point weeks ago and have been aggressively courting the lieutenant governor.

"Everybody is going up and urging him to run," said Republican consultant Carol Hirschburg, who said she has little doubt Steele will run. "How do you say no to that?"

Steele, 46, a former Prince George's County securities lawyer and state GOP chairman, has remained silent in public about his intentions. He said in a brief interview Thursday that he had neither named an exploratory committee nor decided about whether to run.

But he has confirmed receiving entreaties to run from such party leaders as Ken Mehlman, a Maryland native who is chairman of the Republican National Committee, and Sen. Elizabeth Dole (N.C.), chairwoman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the arm of the party that recruits Senate candidates.

"Getting him to run has been at the top of her list, priority-wise," said senatorial committee spokesman Brian Nick, who said that Dole called Steele the day Sarbanes announced his retirement.

Nick said that Dole and Steele have met several times since then and that there has been steady contact between committee staff members and Steele's advisers. Dole has made it clear that "the resources will be there" for Steele from the national party if he chooses to run, Nick said.

Republicans face an uphill battle anytime they run statewide in Maryland, where they are outnumbered almost 2-to-1 on voter rolls. Not since Charles McCurdy Mathias Jr. was reelected in 1980 has a Republican won a U.S. Senate seat in Maryland, with Democrats taking most races by large margins.

Two well-known Democratic political veterans -- Rep. Benjamin L. Cardin and former representative Kweisi Mfume -- are vying for the seat. They, too, appear convinced that Steele represents Democrats' only serious obstacle to retaining Sarbanes's seat.

"He's the only option they have," Maryland Democratic Party Chairman Terry Lierman said. "The Republican Party doesn't have a farm team in Maryland. They're stuck with him."

Patrick E. Gonzales, a Maryland pollster with clients from both parties, said Steele would enter the race in a strong position, given his high visibility and the generally positive impression he has made on voters. But simple math dictates that, as a conservative Republican who opposes abortion, he would still have to persuade some Democrats to break ranks.

As Howard A. Denis, the lone Republican on the Montgomery County Council, put it: "He can get every single Republican vote in Maryland and still lose in a landslide. You have to reach out."

The need to reach across party lines also could have implications for Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. , given that a Steele Senate bid would force the governor to find a running mate.

Already, GOP insiders have been floating a list of names that includes such longtime Democrats as former Prince George's County executive Wayne K. Curry, State Superintendent of Schools Nancy S. Grasmick, and Baltimore City State's Attorney Patricia C. Jessamy, as well as Republican state Sen. Sandra B. Schrader (Howard).

Republican political consultant Kevin Igoe said that regardless of Ehrlich's choice of running mate, a Steele Senate bid could create "a three-person ticket." And Steele would be in an even better position to "spotlight the party's openness to African Americans" because he will command far more media attention than he did in 2002.

Cardin said he is focused on his candidacy and not "whomever the Republicans put up."

Mfume, who considers Steele a friend, said that despite their political differences he believes the lieutenant governor could help bring the Senate race an air of historic significance.

"I think it would speak volumes about where we've come as a nation," he said, "and our ability as political parties to look beyond race and religion."