After a Cold Spell, Summer Heats Up

Last summer's concert season was a bummer for the industry: lackluster ticket sales, big tours canceled, venues half-filled for many shows.

And when summer is dismal, it matters to promoters, because roughly 70 percent of their business takes place from May through September.

Ticket buyers seemed fed up after years of escalating prices for tickets and such ancillary costs as parking, food and souvenirs, and were also caught up with a spike in gasoline prices, the ongoing war in Iraq and a faltering stock market. According to Pollstar, the concert industry trade journal, ticket prices more than doubled over the past decade (the average price hitting $52.39 for the top 100 tours in 2004) while inflation over the same period rose 24 percent. And although concert industry-wide revenue was up, from $2.5 billion in 2003 to $2.8 billion in 2004, it was the result of higher ticket prices. Attendance was actually down 6 percent.

The outlook for this summer? Much sunnier, according to Gary Bongiovanni, editor in chief of Pollstar.

"Absolutely. Last year, there was something in the American psyche that caused people to want to hang on to their money. Whatever it was seems to have abated," he said.

It helps that average ticket prices this year seem to be staying relatively flat, except for Paul McCartney and the Rolling Stones, topping out at $250 and $405, respectively. But sales for those fall tours, along with that of U2, which recently finished the first leg of its American tour, have been robust. Tickets for McCartney (whose tour begins Sept. 16 and includes an Oct. 8 stop at MCI Center) and U2 (at MCI Oct. 19 and 20) are pretty much gone. Before playing a note, U2 sold out 110 shows, 32 in stadiums, and will have made $300 million before the tour ends in December. Even the premium-price Stones (whose tour begins in August, with an Oct. 3 date at MCI) are doing big business. Bruce Springsteen's recent solo tour sold out, and first-quarter tours by Motley Crue and Josh Groban posted surprisingly strong numbers.

"Remember that old saying that a rising tide lifts all boats?" Bongiovanni asked. "People going to those concerts will steer people to other shows. No one's really crying the blues, and promoters are the first ones to cry those crocodile tears."

"2005 is a great year for live touring," agreed Ted Mankin, talent buyer for Cellar Door for the Washington-Baltimore and Virginia markets and the booker for concerts at Nissan Pavilion. "The biggest acts in the world are out this summer. . . . Last year did not have this level of superstars on the road," Mankin said. "Sellouts are great for the business and reinforce the demand fans have for great shows."

"Last year wasn't a bummer for us ," said Seth Hurwitz, whose I.M.P. operates the revitalized Merriweather Post Pavilion as well as the 9:30 club. "It was a bummer for the majority of the concert industry, which keeps booking the same acts again and again, hoping it's the industry that's in a slump, not the acts. I always felt there were too many tired acts out there, and we try to steer as far from those as we can. When our business gets back to genuine talent buying instead of taking phone calls and taking availables [dates], that's when it will be in good shape."

This year's schedule does appear stronger across the board, from rock (Green Day, Dave Matthews Band, Coldplay) to country (Kenny Chesney, Toby Keith, Brooks & Dunn) and R&B (Destiny's Child, the Sugar Water Festival with Erykah Badu, Queen Latifah, Jill Scott and Floetry), from new reality-TV-driven pop (American Idols, Fantasia, Clay Aiken) to classic rock (Neil Diamond, Brian Wilson and the Beach Boys -- albeit separately). Although hip-hop dominates radio, it continues to be underrepresented live: This year's only major rap tour is Anger Management 3 co-headlined by Eminem and 50 Cent. This month, at least, comedy is king, with performances by Jerry Seinfeld, Kevin James, Bill Maher, Lewis Black and George Lopez.

As usual, Wolf Trap's Filene Center, with 95 performances in 108 days, will be the busiest outdoor concert venue: First-timers on a schedule loaded with frequent summer visitors include Clay Aiken, John Legend and Joss Stone, Mark Knopfler, Michael Buble and Celtic Woman, a sort of song version of "Riverdance," which is itself celebrating its 10th anniversary there this weekend.

What's music to concert-goers' ears is that some ticket prices will be coming down, particularly for lawn tickets at Nissan Pavilion. Clear Channel Entertainment, the biggest and most powerful live-music entity ever (after its predecessor, SFX, gobbled up dozens of local concert promoters across the country in the late '90s) will even be running an ad campaign with the tag line "Music Sounds Better on Grass."