Violence Linked to Taliban Swells in Afghanistan

Those skirmishes in May seemed to reveal an opponent far more robust than recently portrayed by Lt. Gen. David Barno, the former senior U.S. commander in Afghanistan. During a news conference in April, Barno warned that a "small, hardcore remnant of the Taliban" might attempt a last, desperate, high-profile terrorist attack. But he said he envisioned "most of [the organization] collapsing and rejoining the Afghan political and economic process" within a year.

More recently, Taliban fighters appear to have shifted tactics to avoid further casualties on their side by ambushing soldiers with improvised explosive devices on roadsides rather than engaging them in battle, U.S. and Afghan military officials said.

Since March, three U.S. soldiers have been killed this way, in addition to four others killed in combat. Afghan troops and police have suffered even greater casualties.

"We are seeing new, more effective remote-controlled bombs now," observed Gen. Afzul Aman, chief of staff for an Afghan army corps that operates in 12 eastern and central provinces.

The rebels seem to have switched their focus from U.S. and Afghan forces to "soft" civilian targets.

Lt. Col. Tom Donovan, who oversees operations in three eastern provinces as commander of the Second Battalion, 504th Infantry Regiment, said the change in strategy was immediately evident.

"In our district we've had schools bombed, medical clinics bombed and government buildings burned down," he said.

Some upswing in violence was expected this spring after one of the bitterest winters on record kept much of the country snowbound for months. But Afghan and U.S. officials said the frequency and intensity of the recent attacks reflected a sustained effort by the Taliban to undermine the parliamentary elections scheduled for September.

Last October, the militia suffered a major psychological and military setback when it failed to follow through on threats to disrupt Afghanistan's presidential elections, the analysts and officials said.

Since then, the movement has been further humiliated by the defection of several dozen former members, who pledged allegiance to Afghan President Hamid Karzai's government in exchange for its promise not to arrest them. Few, if any, of these former Taliban members appear to have been active fighters. But the group includes prominent former Taliban officials such as the onetime foreign minister Wakil Ahmed Muttawakil, who is one of five ex-Taliban running for parliament.

Meanwhile, the Afghan army has grown from a force of several thousand to more than 20,000, with plans to increase its numbers to 70,000. The Afghan police force is about 50,000-strong.

"The enemy realizes this is their last chance to have a significant impact on shaping the future of Afghanistan," Donovan said.