A number of Republicans who represent once-Democratic southern congressional districts heavily dependent on agricultural subsidies and tariff and quota protections for textiles also object to the treaty.
The leaders of the Republican opposition to CAFTA are Reps. Walter B. Jones Jr. (N.C.) and Virgil H. Goode Jr. (Va.), both former Democrats. A substantial number of Republicans have declared they will defect from the White House agenda. Others are under intense pressure to cast "no" votes from the sugar industry and segments of the beef and textile industries concerned about increased competition from Central America.
House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) predicted last Wednesday that wavering Republican lawmakers who are forced by the administration and GOP leaders to vote for CAFTA will be highly vulnerable in the 2006 elections.
Under CAFTA, the United States would make permanent the temporary suspension of tariffs set by the Caribbean Basin Initiative. In return, the Dominican Republic, Honduras, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala and Nicaragua would reduce or eliminate tariffs on most imports, open state monopolies to foreign competition, and remove legal barriers to foreign investment.
The pact gets strong backing from business groups that see new export and import opportunities. Organized labor, however, sees a threat from low-wage production competing with American goods, and many Democrats have voiced concerns that not enough is done to protect Caribbean workers from exploitation, and to educate and train displaced U.S. workers.
The possibility of defeat has pro-CAFTA leaders of U.S. business -- who see the treaty as a test vote for future, much broader, free trade negotiations -- deeply worried. "If we walk away from this deal, we walk away from years of investment and we walk away from extraordinary trade opportunities," Donahue said.
Teams of corporate executives and lobbyists are meeting regularly with undecided House members here and in their home districts. Officials of the Distilled Sprits Council, Procter & Gamble and the Farm Bureau have, for example, met with Rep. John S. Tanner (D-Tenn.) to press the case for CAFTA. In addition to boosted agricultural exports, the treaty would open markets for Procter & Gamble's shampoo factory in Tanner's district and would guarantee that bourbon and Tennessee whiskeys sold in the CAFTA countries would have to be produced in the United States, according to lobbyists for these interests.
In a recent speech on behalf of the treaty, House Majority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) said, "Frankly, this is the model for a global economy."
Jones, who has seen his state's textile factories and workforce devastated by foreign competition, rejected that analysis. "Enough is enough; we are losing the manufacturing base of this country," he said.
Brown and Jones predicted the administration will begin offering special favors to wavering lawmakers. "They are going to open the bank for these guys," said Brown, citing past offers of bridges and other public works projects to win votes on controversial trade bills.
Public Citizen, in a bid to weaken the administration's bargaining position, this week is to issue a report showing that 83 promises have been made to win trade votes over the past 15 years and that only 13 of them were kept: three of 53 commitments to change policies and 10 of 30 pork barrel commitments.
