As the candidates begin to line up for the 2006 race for D.C. mayor, incumbent Anthony A. Williams holds a narrow advantage over Council member Adrian M. Fenty in citywide polls of likely Democratic voters conducted for exploratory committees formed by Fenty and two other potential challengers.
All three polls show Williams (D) and Fenty (D-Ward 4) drawing the support of about a third of those surveyed, with Williams leading by a few percentage points in most hypothetical matchups, sources in the three camps said.
Other potential challengers -- including Council members Jack Evans (D-Ward 2) and Vincent B. Orange Sr. (D-Ward 5) -- trailed Williams and Fenty, the sources said. With the mayor's name included, only about 10 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Evans if the election were held today, sources said. Orange, lobbyist Michael A. Brown and former D.C. Democratic Party chairman A. Scott Bolden were even farther back.
The only other potential contender to show significant strength was Council Chairman Linda W. Cropp (D), who rises to second place behind Fenty when Williams is removed from the equation, according to sources. Neither Cropp nor Williams has said whether they plan to run for mayor in 2006. Fenty formally announced his candidacy June 1.
While the results appear at first blush to offer encouragement to Williams, sources in all three camps said their polls show the mayor is extremely vulnerable, particularly among African American voters.
In Fenty's poll -- a survey of 800 likely Democratic voters conducted in May by pollster Peter D. Hart -- fewer than a third of those surveyed said Williams deserves to be re-elected, according to an internal memo prepared by the pollster. Among black voters, Williams did even worse, with nearly three-quarters saying it's time for someone new.
Pollster Ron Lester said he recorded similar results in a June survey of 600 likely Democratic voters conducted for Bolden. (Bolden said this week he is almost certain to drop out of the mayor's race and run for D.C. Council.)
"The mayor's support has largely disintegrated among black voters," Lester said. "He's going to have to really go after Fenty."
Poll? What Poll?
In addition to Hart and Lester, pollster Diane Feldman conducted a May survey of 1,000 Democratic voters. At the time, Evans adviser Chuck Thies said Evans had commissioned the poll and would most likely pay for it by forming an exploratory committee.
But in an interview Friday, Evans denied having a poll, an exploratory committee or any other trappings of a mayoral campaign (despite his previous insistence that he is already a candidate).
"It's not my poll. We're not forming an exploratory committee. It's way too early," Evans said.
Asked for clarification, Thies said he assumed Feldman's survey "was to test the viability of Jack running for mayor. I cannot offer any further clarity."
