Ex-President Favored, but Runoff Looms

"People are not going to be deceived by economic problems," Moin said. "What we lack in this country -- and it's the key to every problem -- is democracy. Our demand is democracy, democracy and only democracy."

Qalibaf, the former national police chief, appears to have emerged as the most popular conservative candidate in a crowded field. Candidates with hard-line backgrounds have normally won the support of only the 10 percent to 20 percent of the electorate considered loyal to the power structure.

But Qalibaf, 44, has run a slick, soft-focus campaign that plays up his background not as a soldier but as a pilot. He was introduced at a rally this week with the words: "With you we are going to board a flight to success and prosperity!"

Over time, Qalibaf has altered his posture toward students demanding change. When serious campus demonstrations first broke out against the hard-line government in 1999, he joined other Revolutionary Guard commanders in signing a letter warning Khatami that they were ready to step in and quash the protests. After Qalibaf took charge of the police force the following year, his uniformed forces joined paramilitary groups in a crackdown.

But in 2003, Qalibaf deployed police as a buffer between government thugs and student protesters, then worked to ease tensions between the sides. He is now casting himself as a reformer, as are fellow traditionalists Ali Larijani, the state broadcasting chief, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the mayor of Tehran.

"The reality is, not all of them are reformist," said Mohammad Alikbarzadeh, 42. "But I believe he has done a good job with the police force," a reference to Qalibaf.

The ballot also includes Mohsen Mehralizadeh, a vice president who heads Khatami's ministry for sports, and Mehdi Karrubi, a moderate cleric who was speaker of the last parliament dominated by reformers but failed to win a seat in the legislature last year. His campaign is centered on a promise to give every Iranian $60 a month.

Turnout was the key unknown as campaigning ended early Thursday. The Interior Ministry predicted that 55 percent of Iran's estimated 46 million voters would go to the polls, down from 66 percent four years ago. About 79 percent turned out in 1997, when Khatami was first elected.

Interviews with ordinary Iranians suggested the turnout might be even lower than predicted.

"I don't believe it makes a difference," said Reza Ahmadi, 23, who had posters for Ahmadinejad in the windows of his family's bathroom fixture store, Sink Iran. "If we were going to vote, we would vote for him."

At a Tehran bakery, nobody buying bread during a 20-minute span at midday said they planned to vote.

Maliheh Hassani, recalling her vote for Khatami, said she wasn't going to vote, "because it doesn't make any difference. What has he done for eight years? Nothing. So why should we vote for these we don't even like that much?"

Still, she added, she thought many Iranians would ultimately turn out.

Moin supporters were counting on that, and found hope in the eleventh-hour reversals of several prominent figures who had urged an election boycott. Fatima Haqiqatjou, who resigned as a lawmaker last year to protest the mass ban on reformist candidates that put the parliament under conservative control, said her position changed with the emergence of four presidential candidates from Iran's hard-line military elite.

"I believed this state could not be changed from within," Haqiqatjou told the audience at a Moin rally this week. "Until a few days ago, I really believed we should boycott the election.

"But as we get close to the election, we hear the boots of the military man marching behind us. I believe they will shoot every freedom seeker."

Election officials said preliminary vote totals would be available several hours after polls closed Friday.