For Duncan, a Long Road to Run

Pollster Patrick E. Gonzales, who notes that 45 percent of voters in Maryland Democratic primaries live in Baltimore and surrounding counties, said he thinks Duncan is making inroads but still operates in O'Malley's shadow.

In an April poll for the Baltimore Sun, Potomac Inc. found O'Malley beating Duncan 45 percent to 25 percent among likely voters.

O'Malley, who like Duncan has not formally announced his candidacy, will enter the race with several built-in advantages, party officials said. Most notably, O'Malley has been a constant presence on Baltimore television news, which reaches more than half the state.

"I think most people recognize running the city, any big city, is just a really tough job, and I think they feel Martin has done a good job at it," said Jim Voss, a longtime political boss in Caroline County who is backing O'Malley.

But party activists and political experts said they see potential openings for Duncan.

"O'Malley is a rock star. He's young and he's good-looking. He's in a band," said Paul S. Herrnson, director of the Center for American Politics and Citizenship at the University of Maryland. "Duncan . . . is a big man, and he does not have rock star charisma. But what he projects is the image of a smart, competent person in politics."

In some ways, party leaders said Duncan, 49, could be helped by the experience of then-Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in her 2002 campaign against Ehrlich. Townsend, who had high name recognition and was viewed as a rising star in the Democratic Party, scared other Democrats out of the primary. But Townsend couldn't convince voters in the general election that she was strong leader.

"Martin is a celebrity, but after what happened to Kathleen's campaign, people are leery of that," said Mary Jo Neville, a Howard County activist and Duncan supporter. "They want to dig a little deeper and see what else is there."

O'Malley, as he runs statewide, is expected to face questions about Baltimore's persistent problems with crime and flagging schools.

In his speeches, Duncan touts his leadership skills, detailing how -- a week after taking office in 1994 -- he managed to get a smoldering dump fire extinguished that had burned for a month in North Potomac. He then talks about his efforts to redevelop Silver Spring and his record as county executive.

Duncan often takes a veiled swipe at O'Malley, noting how students in Montgomery County boast high SAT scores and pointing out that nearly half the students in Baltimore do not graduate.

But while O'Malley faces challenges as a big-city mayor, Duncan's ties to Montgomery, which some Marylanders view as affluent and arrogant, could be a hindrance as well.

When Duncan mentioned in Salisbury that he grew up in Rockville, one woman shouted, "We won't hold that against you."