Possible Court Nominees Pose a Quandary for Bush

If Rehnquist retires, most officials expect him to announce it on the last day of the court term, scheduled for June 27, although it could be extended by two days to deal with remaining decisions. Bush then would face a strategic decision about how fast to name a replacement.

After more than four years to prepare, Bush would be ready to move forward almost immediately, aides believe. Yet because the Senate plans to recess during August and Republican strategists learned from the failed Robert H. Bork nomination not to let a nominee twist as a target for opponents during a long summer break, some advisers have explored whether it might be smarter to wait until late July or early August to make an announcement.

"The argument for doing it earlier is to get the name out and Congress can gear things up," said a senior administration official who asked not to be named. "The argument against it is you have a long lead time and you leave your person as a punching bag."

Depending on the nominee, Bush could announce right away and then press the Senate to move quickly without waiting until September, Republican strategists said. "There's no way that the right is going to nominate somebody and get him halfway through the process and then go home in August and leave him dangling out there," said Sean Rushton, executive director of the Committee for Justice, a group formed to push for Bush judicial nominees.

With interest groups on both sides readying for a brutal, multimillion-dollar, campaign-style fight, GOP strategists argue that Bush should name a strong conservative rather than worry about wooing Democrats. "If you're ready to compromise, you're probably going to end up with someone pretty bad," said M. Edward Whelan III, a former clerk to Justice Antonin Scalia and president of the Ethics and Public Policy Center. "I imagine that anyone you're going to nominate is going to run into opposition by the Democrats, and so if that's the case, why not get somebody good?"

While Bush has kept mum, about a dozen names of possible candidates have floated out, including Judges Michael W. McConnell of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit; J. Harvie Wilkinson III of the 4th Circuit; Emilio M. Garza of the 5th Circuit; and former solicitor general Theodore B. Olson. McConnell has important advocates in Bush circles, but Wilkinson and Olson, in their sixties, are thought to be too old. Garza is seen as a possible choice if Gonzales is not selected. Advisers do not believe a current justice will be elevated to chief.

The three apparent front-runners -- Luttig, 51; Roberts, 50; and Gonzales, 49 -- all hail from the same generation but bring different strengths and weaknesses.

Luttig, a Texas native and former Scalia clerk appointed by Bush's father, boasts the longest judicial résumé with 14 years on the Richmond-based 4th Circuit appeals court, while Gonzales served for two years on the Texas Supreme Court and Roberts was named by the current president to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit two years ago. Luttig likely would have a powerful Senate patron in Sen. John W. Warner (R-Va.). But Luttig's experience also gives him the longest track record for opponents to mine for ammunition against him.

Roberts, a former Rehnquist clerk who served in both the Reagan and George H.W. Bush Justice Departments before heading to private practice, is well known and well liked in Washington, and some GOP strategists consider him the most confirmable conservative. But in the end, Gonzales brings a powerful personal story as an up-by-his-bootstraps Hispanic American, as well as the friendship of the president.

"There's Judge Gonzales, and then there's everybody else," said Bradford A. Berenson, a former Bush White House associate counsel. "Whether you're looking at Judge Gonzales or everybody else very much depends on how the president judges the political case for appointing an Hispanic and the personal case inside himself for appointing Judge Gonzales."

Yet several people familiar with his thinking said Gonzales prefers the excitement and energy of the executive branch and does not yearn for a lifetime appointment to the slower-paced high court. "I know he's ambivalent about the prospect," said one person who has spoken with Gonzales. "This is not something he dreams of."