In President's Strategy, Two Prongs Collide

Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council was equally deflective when asked about Gonzales's views, but he did note that "I think there will be a problem within the coalition" if Bush fails to nominate a genuinely conservative justice.

Among political strategists, there was disagreement yesterday over whether Bush risks rupturing that coalition and thereby damaging his longer-term political project with his choice.

Simon Rosenberg, founder of the New Democrat Network, said the decision comes at a time of growing strain in the GOP coalition. "You're seeing the kind of public fighting inside the Republican Party that didn't happen a few years ago," he said. "This year has been the toughest year in their coalition since they won the Congress in 1994."

Democratic pollster Sergio Bendixen, who is working with the liberal group People for the American Way in the court fight, said Bush's standing among Latinos -- the president won just over 40 percent of the Hispanic vote in November -- means the fastest-growing segment of the population is no longer clearly part of the Democratic coalition but a competitive swing vote.

But he said that the uproar over Gonzales could turn off many Hispanic voters and push them back toward the Democrats. Recalling the Latino backlash to the fight over illegal immigration in California launched a decade ago by then- Gov. Pete Wilson, he said Bush and his advisers "need to keep control over that right fringe that put California in the blue [Democratic] corner for a generation."

Republicans offered differing views about what Bush's choice may do to his coalition. Pollster David Winston said he believes that Bush could nominate someone with Gonzales's views without causing major problems on the right. "This is a president who . . . has had very solid and significant support," he said. "It's a base that's willing to go a long way with him."

Sean Rushton, executive director of the Committee for Justice, a group formed to support Bush judicial nominations, questioned whether a conservative nominee would alienate moderates. "That's nonsense," he said. "The worst thing the president could do for his party's 2006 election hopes -- and especially for [Sen.] Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania -- is to go with a nominee who is seen as less principled by conservatives. That would completely dry up the funding. That would completely dry up the enthusiasm."

Henry G. Cisneros, who was housing secretary in the Clinton administration and who supported Gonzales's nomination as attorney general, said the biggest payoff for Bush could come by naming a Latino other than Gonzales, namely Garza. "Bush would get credit from Latinos for naming the first Latino to the Supreme Court and [have a nominee] who is not anathema to the far right," he said.

Cisneros said he doubts that Bush will pass up the opportunity to name a Latino to the court, whether with this choice or the next one. "It's too big an opportunity not to do it," he said.

Whether Bush sees himself as being in a bind, only he and his advisers can say. But the longer he goes without naming a successor to O'Connor, the more the debate over Gonzales is likely to fester.