A Scholarly Look at Terror Sees Bootprints In the Sand

Fearing someone might reveal Pape's unique data prior to publication, Random House did not release advance copies of his book before its May 24 sale date, which, Pape noted, "they usually only do for 'kiss-and-tell' kind of books." As would be expected in these polarized times, it is drawing mixed reviews. One slammed its "cockeyed statistics." Another praised its "solid and penetrating research."

Prominent experts on terrorism dish out both praise and criticism.

"In terms of al Qaeda, he's dead wrong," says Marc Sageman, author of the authoritative "Understanding Terror Networks."

Sageman faults Pape for putting al Qaeda in the same basket as such secular organizations as Sri Lanka's Tamil Tigers and Palestinian groups in Lebanon. "He may be right about the other two," which are a "more traditional form of insurgency," says Sageman, but "he misunderstands al Qaeda. . . . This is not about occupation; it's about [al Qaeda] establishing an Islamic state in a core Arab region."

Sageman also notes that the lead hijacker on 9/11, Mohamed Atta, was Egyptian -- and "to my knowledge, I don't think we are occupying Egypt."

Al Qaeda expert Peter Bergen, author of "Holy War Inc." and a fellow at the New America Foundation, a nonprofit public policy group, calls Pape's theory "kind of brilliant."

Pape "is part of a wave that includes Sageman who are looking at the data, and [as a result] all our conventional wisdom goes out the window," Bergen says. "It's comforting to think that a bunch of Islamic nut cases fresh out of madrassas are attacking us, but it turns out that a group of rational political actors who are as well educated as most Americans are attacking us."

Still, Bergen notes that Pape's ideas do not fit all cases. The Basques' fight against Spain, the Irish Republican Army's battle with Britain and, most notably, the Afghans' revolt against their Soviet occupiers never spawned suicide terrorists, though all involved perceived occupation. Also, says Bergen, martyrdom and the "powerful mythology around Islamic terrorism . . . can't be ignored."

Michael Scheuer, former CIA analyst and author of "Imperial Hubris," says Pape's statistics "definitively show that people are attacked by suicide car bombs not because of who they are or what they believe, as Presidents Clinton and Bush have been saying to the American people." Instead, "people use car bombs to attack occupying powers. . . . This war is about what we do in the world, not who we are." Several of the 18 legislators at Pape's Capitol Hill briefing last month found his ideas interesting. Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R-Ind.) "was impressed with the analysis," his spokesman, Andy Fisher, says. And Sen. Craig Thomas (R-Wyo.) says he found it plausible. "Apparently his findings are that these folks want to get everyone out of the Middle East who aren't native to it," Thomas says, and although he does not regard the U.S. military presence as an occupation, "I could see how they would use that" word.

Many of the legislators' questions were about Iraq, which had never experienced a suicide terrorist attack before the U.S. invasion. After it, there were 20 in 2003, 48 in 2004 and more than 50 in the first five months of this year, according to Pape's tally.

After two years and $10 billion, the United States can point to only 7,000 to 10,000 combat-ready Iraqi troops, Pape says. Even though "they are being controlled by American military officers all the way down to the brigade level . . . they're never going to be loyal to George Bush," says Pape. "What we need to solve is the loyalty problem of the Iraqi army, and the only way that's going to be solved is if they're loyal to their own government."

Pape recommends immediately putting these Iraqi army units under the direct, exclusive control of the Iraqi government. Otherwise, "we're heading toward a Vietnam-like outcome where the public throws up its hands in disgust, pulls the plug and . . . we withdraw hastily and a government comes to power in Iraq that is not only unstable but anti-American."

Pape says he is "gratified" by the attention his research is getting. "Knowledge alone will not win the war on terrorism," says the professor, "but solid, reliable knowledge is indispensable."