Not Going With the Chalk at the Old Course

ST. ANDREWS, Scotland -- Tiger Woods says he's pounding the ball just the way he wants to coming into the 134th British Open, one of many reasons he's being touted as a 3-to-1 favorite in the local and very legal bookmaking parlors in this corner of the world to win his second Open title and 10th major championship.

Five years ago, when there was little wind and plenty of sun -- the exact same conditions predicted over the four days of this year's event -- Woods's tournament record 19-under score of 269 decimated the rest of the field and gave him an eight-shot victory, the largest margin of the modern post-World War II era.

Incredibly, Woods's swooshed golf ball never once came to rest in any of the 112 bunkers strewn around the most famous course in the world, many of them with devilishly appropriate names like Hell, Graves and Coffins. He attributed it then and now mostly to pure rub-of-the-green luck, a good bounce here, a fortuitous roll there. If he can somehow duplicate that feat or come close to it again this week, he'll be tough to beat.

There is another lesser known statistic that would tend to favor Woods. In 2000, when Jack Nicklaus played his final U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, Woods won the event. Two months later, in Nicklaus's final PGA Championship at Valhalla, a course Nicklaus built, Woods won the event. Two months ago at The Masters in Nicklaus's last competitive round at Augusta National, Woods won the event.

So now, Nicklaus will be playing in his final British Open, and likely his last major championship. No wonder Woods said here Tuesday that, "I wish he'd keep retiring. Hopefully we can do it again. It's been very good so far."

And yet, when I visit the local Ladbroke's bookmaking office in downtown St. Andrews to make my annual big-money wagers (that would be maximum five quid, or $9) on any single player, I'll be avoiding the chalk and going after far better odds -- specifically the man who should have won this event a year ago at Royal Troon -- three-time Open runner-up Ernie Els.

A year after losing in a playoff to unknown journeyman Todd Hamilton and also posting a second-place finish at the 2004 Masters, with top 10s in all four majors, I believe the big South African will prevail this week, even if the bookies are saying he's a 16-to-1 shot to win the oldest major of them all.

I'll take those odds for several reasons. For one, in his two previous appearances at St. Andrews, he's been 11th (in 1995) and tied for second (2000). For another, he's coming off three consecutive rounds in the 60s at the Scottish Open last week, getting him a tie for 11th place, including a splendid 68 in the last round.

Although the American-style course he played in Loch Lomond in no way resembles the links of the Old Course, Els was in desperate need of a transfusion of confidence after five consecutive rounds in the 70s, four in the U.S. Open, where he was never in contention and finished 15th.

Els also says St. Andrews and Muirfield, where he won in 2002, are his favorite Open courses. "Knowing the Old Course is important because there are so many blind tee shots and you have to get used to all the bunkers," he said. "We're all going to go in a bunker at some stage. ... St. Andrews is one of the best examples of a course which has stood the test of time."

An Els victory also would tug at the heartstrings this week. Two weeks ago, his maternal grandfather, Theodore Ernest Vermaak, died at 97. He had lived a rich and full life, and young Ernie had been named after him. They were particularly close because Vermaak had introduced Ernie's father to the game, and later on to his strapping grandson.

"He died in his sleep, but when we laid him to rest we wanted to celebrate his incredible life," Els said last week at Loch Lomond. "He was a great character and a big influence on all of us. During the 1994 U.S. Open [at Oakmont in Pennsylvania, Els' first major victory], I spoke to him every day because I was a bit low on confidence. We're all going to miss him a lot."