Indeed, the report quotes a Chinese general as suggesting that China's focus on Taiwan is an obstacle to the projection of China's military power elsewhere. The Taiwan issue is of "far-reaching significance to breaking international forces' blockade against China's maritime security . . . only when we break this blockade shall we be able to talk about China's rise," Gen. Wen Zongren, political commissar of the PLA Academy of Military Science, said in an interview quoted in the report. "To rise suddenly, China must pass through oceans and go out of the oceans in its future development."
The report cited expanded Chinese naval operations such as the "intrusion" last year of a Han-class nuclear submarine in Japanese territorial waters, and new abilities of Chinese fighters to range farther into the South China Sea.
China last year deployed its first two Russian-made guided missile destroyers and is buying eight additional Kilo-class diesel electric submarines from Russia, giving it 12 of the stealthy vessels. The Kilo submarines will be equipped with long-range anti-ship missile systems that could be used to attack U.S. naval forces from 100 miles away or more, according to Roger Cliff, a military analyst at Rand Corp.
The Chinese navy's advances are coupled with development of new ground-to-ground and ground-to-air missiles to constitute a Chinese "anti-access" strategy aimed at countering the U.S. ability to operate near its borders, the report says. China's new S-300PMU2, a surface-to-air missile with a 100-mile range, would allow it "to engage aircraft over Taiwan," the report said, including U.S. aircraft aiding Taiwan in a confrontation with China.
China is also "qualitatively and quantitatively" improving its nuclear missile force, which is now capable of targeting most of the world, including all of the continental United States, the report said.
Of greatest concern, say U.S. military analysts, are the new, mobile DF-31 and DF-31A intercontinental ballistic missiles, which are expected to become operational as early as 2005 and 2007, respectively. Because they are mobile, the missiles are not as vulnerable to destruction by a first strike. "It's starting to give them a second strike capability against the U.S.," Cliff said.
Details on China's nuclear advances come against the backdrop of last week's warning by Chinese Maj. Gen. Zhu Chenghu that China would respond with nuclear weapons to a U.S. attack on Chinese territory. U.S. analysts who know Zhu say they believe that his views, which he stressed were just his personal opinions, were expressed with at least tacit approval from China's leaders.
"They think it's good to have a mad dog in your closet who might scare your potential adversaries," said retired Adm. Dennis Blair, former commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, who heard Zhu make similar comments earlier this year. "It always helps your leverage if your adversaries think you might do something stupid."
