Nationally, housing starts stood at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 2.004 million in June, the same as in May, while single-family starts stood at 1.667 million, down from 1.735 million in May, according to the Commerce Department.
"We seem to be hanging in at high levels," Cheney said.
Historically, the nation produces about 1.5 million new housing units a year and reaches the 2 million-home mark only during periods of high demand -- as when baby boomers began moving into their own homes in the 1970s, and then again when they began to purchase larger units in the mid-1980s, Cheney said.
The current building boom has been fueled by low interest rates, which have pushed down the cost of owning a home and advanced home ownership rates to record levels, around 69.1 percent, up from the previous high of 68.6 percent in 2004. Home ownership rates have been breaking records over the past five years.
The moderation in home-building last month was uneven, with the South, which includes the Washington area, showing surprising strength, adding 1.02 million new units in June, an 11.4 percent surge over the previous month and twice as many as the next-leading region, the West, which had 522,000 units, a decline of 10.4 percent from May. The Midwest added 360,000, down 12.1 percent, and the Northeast another 124,000, flat from the previous month. The Commerce Department report didn't break out individual markets, but economists said such markets as Atlanta, Orlando and other Florida markets led the way.
"The Confederacy has risen again," said David A. Wyss, an economist with Standard & Poor's.
Most economists forecast steadily declining housing starts into next year if mortgage rates edge higher. Wyss said he expected housing starts to dip to about 1.8 million by year-end as 30-year mortgage rates climb to about 6.3 percent, from current levels of around 5.7 percent.
Chen forecasts new housing starts to sink to 1.65 million by the end of next year, with prices tapering off as mortgage rates rise.
However, one sign that the building boom may still have room to run: The number of new building permits authorized rose at a rate of 2.4 percent, to 2.111 million, from 2.062 million. The permits figure is seen as a leading, though less reliable, indicator of future housing construction.
"Permits remain in the stratosphere," Cheney said.
