Building Uncertainty in Montgomery County

Porten's cement layer, Cuco and Sons Inc., is among them. Richard Cuco runs the Sterling company with about 50 employees, and he said even a short delay could force him to lay off as many as 15 people.

He did not warn his employees last week that layoffs might be coming. But he did tell them trouble was brewing, and he said he is ready to make some hard choices after tomorow's council meeting.

"I told them a situation was coming up, a bad situation, that we might have some changes in the company," he said. "They were astonished that something like this could happen so fast out of the blue. These guys are out there working hard every day."

Cuco will also have to find new work.

"I was pushing away work in the last few months in anticipation of some projects" in Montgomery County, he said. "Now I have to go back and find more work . . . It's almost like a recession."

While it may feel like one to Cuco, economists said there would not be any long-term effects on employment. A construction slowdown would not register as more than a blip in the area's economy.

"This won't upend the momentum in this economy," said Anirban Basu, an economist and chairman of Sage Policy Group Inc. in Baltimore. "For the people who are affected, particularly in the contracting business, the effects may feel more substantial than an economist might suggest. But it's hard to imagine the long-term effects will be devastating."

Workers can surely find work in other counties, he said, and when the moratorium is over, more work will be waiting.

But that is precisely the scenario that worries Joel King, president of King Carpentry Inc., which employs 200 carpenters and was scheduled to install wood framing in Porten's project. Good carpenters are tough to come by, especially during a building boom. If they aren't working six days a week, they will find another employer.

King said he has two choices: pay them for a full week's work when they may not perform a full week's work, or let them join a competitor. That would leave him with a shortage when the Montgomery County work resumes. .

"If I have to pay them for full time, even though I'm not using them full time, that affects the bottom line," King said. "When they are not working efficiently, they cost you money. A good carpenter gets 20 or 25 bucks an hour."

And then there's the bank.

Porten has a two-year revolving construction loan with M&T Bank. She is supposed to pay off the principal as she sells homes, pocketing the profit after each closing and sending the rest to the bank.

But as she is waiting to sell the houses, Porten has to pay the interest, which right now comes to $75,000 a month. The longer she waits to build, the longer before she sells, and the more interest she owes -- a bad dynamic at a time when interest rates are drifting higher.

While M&T Vice President Van Anderson acknowledged that it is profitable for banks in the short run, it is ultimately unhealthy. Projects become riskier, particularly if people buy existing homes or turn their sights to other parts of the region.

"A buyer could decide to go in a totally different direction," Anderson said. "They may not have the luxury of time."

And when the moratorium is lifted, Porten could be left staring at a lot of dirt.

"I ask myself: Will our guys be there with our cement?" she said.

Staff writer Dana Hedgpeth contributed to this report.