The fight over John Roberts's nomination to the Supreme Court isn't only about abortion, but that's a big part of it.
Sure, there are other issues -- civil rights, gay rights, property rights and so on -- but abortion looms large over them all. Make no mistake -- abortion is one of the main things President Bush had in mind when he declared in announcing the nomination a couple weeks ago that Roberts will "strictly apply the Constitution and laws, not legislate from the bench." So whatever Roberts really thinks about abortion, many on the left are assuming he will work to overturn Roe v. Wade if he takes a seat on the high court.
And, since Senate Democrats are unlikely to get enough votes to sustain a filibuster, their assumptions likely won't preclude his confirmation.
The only real questions, then, are how much of a symbolic fight will Democrats put up and how will the public perceive that fight.
Much of this fight (whether a skirmish or a battle royale remains to be seen) will be over rhetoric. There was an interesting exchange that underscored this point on NBC's "Meet the Press" last Sunday.
Speaking with panelist William Safire, the conservative former New York Times columnist, moderator Tim Russert said: "President Bill Clinton was very clear as a candidate, Bill Safire, that he would only appoint people to the court who would uphold Roe v. Wade. Why don't Republicans step forward and say, 'We're going to put people on the bench who are going to overturn Roe v. Wade?'"
Safire, who once worked as a speechwriter for President Nixon, answered succinctly: "Because that would be foolish politically, and I think there's a lot of practicality going on."
Indeed.
To understand the underlying politics, let's first take a look at the polls. Although politicians of all stripes love to proclaim that their commitment to principle supercedes the vagaries of polling, it's clear that public opinion plays a clear role in the political rhetoric from both sides.
According to a national nonpartisan Quinnipiac University poll taken July 21 to 25, 61 percent of those asked said Roberts should state his opinion on abortion compared with 32 percent who said he should not. And 57 percent said the Senate should consider "his views on controversial issues like abortion and the death penalty" versus 36 percent who said the Senate's only concern should be his judicial qualifications.
The Quinnipiac poll was also consistent with other polling over the years, showing that 65 percent of people agree with the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision, which established abortion as a right, compared with 30 percent who disagree.
Even as polls have showed that many, if not most, Americans support some restrictions on abortion, those same polls have suggested that most people solidly agree with the Roe reasoning. That reasoning concludes there is a right to privacy in the U.S. Constitution that protects a woman's right to choose abortion even if the Constitution doesn't specifically outline that right.
