In the interval, North Korea by its own account has built several nuclear devices. How much progress Iran may have made, if any, is less clear. Iran denies pursuing weapons, though in the past it hid nuclear development efforts that it attributed to civilian purposes. A recent U.S. intelligence estimate concluded that the theocratic state is as long as 10 years away from making the key ingredient for nuclear weapons.
One U.S. official who specializes in nuclear issues laughed when asked to score the administration's success in handling the three countries. "I'm tempted to say we're 1-2," he said, "but I think that wouldn't be honest."
Robert J. Einhorn, a former assistant secretary of state for nonproliferation, said North Korea and Iran "show the difficulty in stopping determined proliferators without using force." He added: "We are not prepared to use military options in either place, but we also have not come up with a combination of incentives and disincentives to get the job done."
After the saber-rattling rhetoric of the first term, Kemp credits the new Bush team with being "remarkably restrained" on North Korea and Iran. "At least now we're seen as a cooperative multilateral player and not thumbing our nose at the rest of the world," he said.
Yet by seeking international consensus, Bush has made his policy dependent on other countries in a way he has been loath to do. The administration was blindsided by recent South Korean comments supporting civilian nuclear energy for the North. And the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) last week adopted only a mild resolution calling on Iran to turn off its uranium-conversion facility, with no threat of consequences.
"Obviously, Iran is ahead for the moment and they had a much better week," one disappointed senior European official said. "But I don't think anybody on our side would say we've lost this yet."
U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of sensitive diplomacy, said they still could win a consensus to refer the matter to the U.N. Security Council for possible sanctions.
But the outcome of last week's IAEA meeting "just shows how much more capital we have to put into this," one official said. The official said the issue, while a high priority, has been overshadowed within the administration. "There are a limited number of hours in the day and people are devoting those to the debacle in Iraq."
For all the focus on Iraq, the problems there are even more complex. The administration has tried without success to pressure fractious Iraqi leaders to write a governing document. The deadlock led Iraqis to extend their deadline to Monday, as U.S. officials scramble to help find a consensus.
From the beginning, the White House has said it would employ different strategies for each member of the axis. In the case of North Korea, it has refused one-on-one negotiations but agreed to sit down with Pyongyang's representatives in the context of multiparty talks. Bush refuses to talk with Iran at all, although he has supported the European outreach to Tehran. Some Republicans in Congress are starting to quietly urge the administration to communicate with Iran directly, as it has with North Korea.
The disparity in strategies has grown more evident. At a news conference last week, Bush was asked why it might be acceptable for Iran to develop civilian nuclear power but not North Korea. Bush suggested that Tehran has been more honest.
"North Korea is in a different situation," he said, because "they didn't tell the truth when it came to their enrichment programs." The statement was a striking shift in tone for a president who has regularly accused Iran of hiding weapons programs.
As the conflict drags on, some analysts predict that resolution will elude the president who vowed not to wait nearly a full term ago.
"I think in five years we'll be in the same stalemate we are now at best," said Clifford Kupchan, who studies Iran at the Eurasia Group. "Neither Pyongyang nor Tehran wants to pick a fight with the 800-pound gorilla because they'll lose. On the other hand, the 800-pound gorilla doesn't have a lot of options right now, either."
