What is the status of Iraq's constitution?
Iraqi lawmakers are crafting the country's first democratic constitution after the ouster of Saddam Hussein. Since March 2004, the Transitional Administrative Law has governed the country. A body of law written by U.S. officials, the TAL called for the election of an interim National Assembly in January 2005 and the creation of a committee to write a new constitution by Aug. 15. Deeply divided Iraqi political leaders missed that deadline but gave themselves until midnight on Aug. 22 to complete the document. But delegates failed to ratify the proposal submitted five minutes before the deadline.
Why haven't Iraqis been able to agree on a constitution?
Different beliefs, histories and interests continue to separate Iraqis. The country is divided among Shiite Arabs from the south, Sunni Arabs from the central part of the country and Kurds from the north. Each group envisions a different Iraq. In addition, U.S. officials, with their own concerns, have been deeply involved in the process, trying to include in the constitution democratic principles that may further complicate the negotiations.
The draft submitted Monday by Shiite Muslims and their Kurdish allies angered the Sunni minority. One Sunni delgate warned of sectarian unrest should the proposal be forced through without Sunni support.
What are the most important differences?
Federalism, the role of Islam and the distribution of oil revenues are the main sticking points.
The federalism issue revolves around how much power the central government in Baghdad will have. The draft constitutions calls for a highly decentralized government and grants great regional autonomy, especially to the Kurds who want to formalize the structures in northern Iraq set up in 1991. Shiites would be able to strengthen their own autonomy in the south, establishing sub-state made up of almost half of Iraq's 18 provinces. Minority Sunnis favor a more centralized government to protect their status.
The oil issue is related to the federalism issue. Iraq has one of the largest oil reserves in the world, but most of that oil is located in the Kurdish north and the Shiite south. Those regions want provincial governments to retain a greater share of oil revenues; the Sunnis in the central and western regions, where there is less oil, want the central government to control more of the revenue. The draft calls for central control over existing oil production but regional control over future production.
Most Iraqis agree that Islam should be recognized as the official religion, but there is disagreement about how to recognize it. The Shiites, who comprise the majority of Iraq's population, favor installing a strong role for Islamic law in the constitution and in family and civil law. Sunnis are resisting any constitutional status for Shiite clerics, and some favor the establishment of secular law. Additionally, some Iraqis and Western observers worry that interpretations of Islamic tenets in family law will significantly disadvantage women.
Is compromise possible?
Each faction has an interest in agreeing to a new constitution. The Kurds cannot push their demands too far because the United States and all of Iraq's neighbors oppose Kurdish independence (Iran, Turkey and Syria have sizable Kurdish populations and fear that a Kurdish state in Iraq could strengthen calls for independence in their countries). Although they have long dominated Iraq's political and commercial life, the Sunnis face the reality that they are now a minority that must accommodate the others' interests. The Shiites, who won a near majority of seats in the parliament and control the interim government, have a stake in preserving their power.
Some observers believe that differences among the groups have actually hardened in recent weeks. For example, a Shiite leader recently called for an autonomous region in the south, a new demand that surprised Sunnis, Kurds and U.S. officials.
The Washington Post reported Tuesday that Sunni delegates "warned that civil unrest could erupt if the charter becomes law over their objections."
What happens now?
The Shiites and Kurds submitted their proposal just before the deadline expired. They could force the measure through but that would anger the Sunnis. They've given themselves three more days to win sufficient Sunni support to avoid enflaming sectarian conflict.
Legally, in the absence of a draft constitution, the National Assembly would be dissolved and new elections held by Dec. 15. The new assembly would then have a year to write a constitution. But the failure to approve a constitution would be a major setback for the United States and the current Iraqi government and could possibly provoke a political crisis with unpredictable results.
If a deal is reached, Iraqis would vote on the document in a referendum to be held by Oct. 15. The TAL states that the constitution will be ratified "if a majority of the voters in Iraq approve and if two-thirds of the voters in three or more governorates do not reject it." If these conditions are met, Iraq would then elect a new, full-term government by Dec. 15.
