Too Much of a Sacrifice?

However, Click realized those numbers did not tell the full story, because they relied on an "average" player on an "average" team, with no regard to whether a team was playing for one run -- i.e., in the late innings of a close game.

So Click ran simulations using actual players to determine the thresholds for which specific hitters should and should not bunt. His conclusion: With a runner on first base and no outs, any hitter with an on-base percentage (OBP) of at least .206 and/or a slugging percentage (SLG) of at least .182 -- numbers that would encompass practically every hitter in the majors, including many pitchers -- should swing away. The only exception is when a team is playing specifically for one run, in which case the thresholds are a .282 OBP and/or .322 SLG.

"For most pitchers, it's probably a wash as to whether [a bunt] is a good idea," Click said in a telephone interview. "And with good-hitting pitchers, it's not a good idea. Any [hitter] who is good enough to have a major league job shouldn't be bunting in that situation."

And yes, Click said, that includes shortstop Cristian Guzman, the Nationals' notoriously pitcher-esque hitter.

The Nationals, he said, "are playing in a park [RFK Stadium] that's a pretty extreme pitchers' park. So I can understand, in a way, why they play that way with that lineup. You'd be hard-pressed to get big innings going in that park. But at the same time, if offense is so hard to come by, it's foolish to give away outs. . . . To simply say the sacrifice is always a bad idea is not true. But is it used too often? Yes."

After a pause, Click added, "It's a point of contention between people who work with stats and people who play the game."

That is putting it mildly. Robinson, for one, resents the notion of some guy sitting in an office somewhere in California telling him how to manage a game.

"I decide whether to bunt based on the situation, where we are in the game, who the hitter is, who's pitching for the other team, how good [a defensive player] the third baseman is," Robinson said. "We're not a real good team at [driving in] runners in scoring position. We don't have a lot of guys who can turn the game around with one swing of the bat. We also hit into a lot of double plays. All of those things factor into it."

Robinson bunts primarily with his pitchers, of course -- they account for 33 of the team's 70 sacrifices this season. But utility infielder Jamey Carroll (11) is tied for the lead for most number of sacrifices on the team, and everyone from Brad Wilkerson (three) to Jose Guillen (one) and Vinny Castilla (one) have laid down sacrifice bunts. However, as Robinson points out, sometimes his best hitters decide to bunt on their own.

As a future Hall of Fame outfielder in Baltimore, Robinson played for four seasons under Manager Earl Weaver (himself a Hall of Famer), who is widely considered the father of the anti-bunt movement. In his book, "Weaver On Strategy," the legendary skipper lists his "laws" of managing, the fourth of which is, "Your most precious possessions on offense are your 27 outs." Weaver's Fifth Law is a corollary: "If you play for one run, that's all you'll get."

"I hated playing for one run," Weaver said recently. "But I didn't always take my own advice. I never bunted with Frank Robinson or Boog Powell or Eddie Murray at the plate, of course. But I did it with [Mark] Belanger and [Paul] Blair, two real good players. I think I bunted them too much."

"He didn't want to give up an out," Robinson says of Weaver. "But each manager has to do what he thinks is best. Going up there and just swinging the bat -- I don't have that type of personality. He had that type of personality."