Red-State Democrats Tilt to Yes on Roberts

But Republicans acknowledge they must also tread carefully around volatile issues. Democrats, GOP operatives say, succeed when they cast cultural debates broadly -- making the argument about civil rights rather than affirmative action, or women's rights rather than abortion.

"I do think not just the administration but the conservative movement sometimes have a difficult time not playing pure defense" when it comes to debates about the court and cultural conservatism, said Sean Rushton of the conservative Committee for Justice. "If Roberts gets more votes because he is perceived as squishy and not particularly conservative . . . that will be bad for Republicans in the election," because it could depress voter turnout among social conservatives, he said.

Some Democratic strategists predict Roberts could get as many as 80 votes, including a majority of Senate Democrats, aides say. The only Republican senators considered potential no votes are the handful of moderates who represent states in the Northeast, including Lincoln D. Chafee of Rhode Island. Based on preliminary estimates provided by both sides, roughly 45 senators are considered certain to back Roberts, 15 are considered highly likely to vote for him and 20 or so are considered potential supporters.

The Senate Judiciary Committee is scheduled to begin hearings Tuesday, with a final vote on the nominee expected by early October. In past confirmation fights, the nominee typically began the hearings under the presumption he or she would be confirmed. But, as Robert H. Bork, Clarence Thomas and many others before can attest, nominees often face unexpected challenges to their confirmation under the gaze of Senate hearings.

In meetings with senators and staff, Ralph G. Neas, a leading advocate for Roberts's defeat, says polling conducted for his group and others shows moderates and independents -- widely considered the swing voters in elections -- strongly oppose Roberts's judicial views on the rights of women and minorities and court deference to presidential power.

Neas, president of the liberal People for the American Way, says the only way Democrats can successfully carry this message into the election is if the majority of them vote against Roberts -- and then cite his rulings as evidence of a conservative court usurping the freedoms of individuals.

"Those Democrats who vote for Roberts would miss the opportunity to criticize with credibility Bush, Republicans and the court because they were complicit in his confirmation," said Neas. He points to the elections of 1992 -- the "Year of the Woman" -- when voters elected Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) and others in the wake of the stormy hearings over Thomas as proof that confirmation votes can tip elections. But the political landscape has changed over the past decade, and Democrats such as Conrad and Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) have a fresh example of dangers for Democrats in Bush country. In 2004, Daschle, the Senate minority leader, was defeated in a campaign dominated by charges that he talked like a conservative when at home, but voted like a liberal in Washington.

Ben Nelson said the opposition of liberal groups is misguided. "Were they expecting someone from the political left?" said Nelson. "I have yet to see anything in [Roberts's] background that I would see as a disqualification."

Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.), a freshman, said he has an open mind heading into the hearings and feels no pressure to side with liberals. "My state is unlike most others -- it is a microcosm of the entire country," he said. "I have got everything from extreme left to extreme right."

Staff writer Jo Becker and polling director Richard Morin contributed to this report.