In such an atmosphere, neither side sees a benefit in compromise or rhetorical restraint -- as last week's rush of Katrina-inspired partisan invective made plain.
"As the middle dissipates in American politics, there is a tendency to see the other side as even more dangerous because there is such a radical shift if they are in power," Gergen said.
It is too early to determine whether the public's gloomy mood spells trouble for elected officials next year, but Frank Newport of the nonpartisan Gallup Organization said his surveys have shown a strong majority of Americans unhappy with Bush and Congress even before Katrina. Only about 35 percent of Americans have said they approve of Congress's performance throughout the summer, citing the war and gas prices as their chief gripes.
"In 2006, if there isn't some turn of events, Iraq combined with Katrina and the large budget deficits to follow will create an opportunity for non-incumbents to move in," said James A. Thurber, a political scientist professor at American University.
Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg briefed a group of Capitol Hill Democrats last week on the political fallout of Katrina, telling them Bush is losing support and that Democrats stand to benefit from the public's discontent next November if they manage the Katrina aftermath shrewdly, participants said.
Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds (R-N.Y), the top strategist for House Republicans, said the GOP has two factors working in its favor: The public may dislike Congress, but voters generally like their own representative and, unlike a decade ago, there are only 30 or so House seats that are truly competitive.
The one thing Republicans and Democrats agree on is voters will reward or punish them based on how they respond to the devastating natural disaster in the weeks and months ahead.
GOP congressional leaders, concerned about a backlash to the massive spending ahead and the president's performance over the past 10 days, are lobbying Bush to lay out a long-term vision that would be announced in an address to the nation, several leadership aides said. One issue being debated inside the White House is whether to offer victims "portable benefits" such as education assistance they can carry with them if they decide to relocate outside of the Gulf Coast region.
One new issue that will be addressed is assistance to minorities living in big cities, often the forgotten demographic in political wars focused on the middle-class Americans who vote in higher numbers and live in competitive regions. Republicans are laying preliminary plans for tax-friendly business zones in low-income areas, an idea that was popular among conservatives in the late 1990s, and expanding education programs targeted at the neediest.
Democrats see Katrina uprooting the entire budget debate, making it virtually impossible for Republicans to reduce the size of programs such as Medicaid or any other funding aimed at the poor for months to come. A senior House GOP leadership aide said Democrats are probably right.
Yet much remains unresolved about the Democratic alternative. Will they drop their campaign for smaller deficits to fund an activist government? Will they raises taxes? Will they call for a pullout from Iraq to shift funds to homeland protection?
As Sept. 11, 2001, led to the creation of committees, probes and even a new federal agency, the natural disaster is likely to lead to a broad rethinking of governmental priorities in a time of turmoil and change. Issues such as mass evacuations, domestic deployment of troops and the restoration of wetlands will assume the prominence of anthrax vaccinations and subway alert systems held in the fall of 2001. Many predict a natural-disaster czar will emerge with power similar to homeland security chief.
Ultimately, some strategists believe the details of individual debates will matter less than a cumulative judgment about effectiveness. "The public is going to look in coming months and year and say how have leaders responded to this . . . and what have they done" to protect the nation, said Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman.
