Poll Shows Kilgore Ahead of Kaine in Va.

In Northern Virginia, where Kaine strategists hope to do well, Kilgore's popularity in the outer suburbs is countering Kaine's support inside the Capital Beltway. Kilgore has a 10-point lead in the outer counties -- such places as Prince William, Loudoun and the western part of Fairfax County. Kaine is ahead by 29 percentage points in the inner suburbs: Alexandria, Arlington, Fairfax City, Falls Church and eastern Fairfax County.

But the poll also indicates that Kilgore has not succeeded in portraying Kaine as a liberal. Equal numbers of voters said the major-party candidates were likely to share their values, be honest, keep the state's economy strong and improve transportation. Neither is out of the mainstream, a majority said.

Kilgore advisers said voters should expect a barrage of television ads and mass mailings this month and next describing Kaine's positions on the death penalty, guns, immigration, taxes and abortion. Both campaigns will report next week that they have millions of dollars to spend before the Nov. 8 election.

Some of Kilgore's anti-Kaine messages have the potential to work better than others, the survey suggests.

Kilgore seems to be on the popular side of the debate about illegal immigration. Last month, he opposed the use of public money to build a center in Herndon where day laborers, even those in this country illegally, could assemble to get work. More than half of those surveyed said they agree with that position.

And nearly two-thirds agree with Kilgore that voters should be given the right to approve increases in the sales, income or gas tax in a statewide referendum.

Follow Warner

If the poll offers sobering news for Kaine, it also signals that his basic strategy -- trying to ride Warner's coattails -- has potential.

Overall, Virginians are happy with their state government. Sixty-five percent say the state is headed in the right direction, and 83 percent believe the overall economy is good or excellent.

"Virtually everyone except Jerry Kilgore recognizes the success of the Warner-Kaine administration," said Kaine spokesman Mo Elleithee. "The more people focus on this race and focus on Tim Kaine's role in that administration, the better we are going to do."

Warner is more popular than any of the current candidates. He is viewed favorably by 69 percent of Virginia voters, outscoring his own Democratic Party by 16 percentage points and a political rival, Republican Sen. George Allen, by 11 points.

And it's not just Warner's personal popularity that could be hard to duplicate.

Warner's principal accomplishment -- a tax increase to raise $1.5 billion over two years for schools, health care and other services -- is broadly supported despite a dislike of tax increases generally.