Some nonpartisan analysts said the Frist case could fizzle, in legal and political terms, if anything short of insider trading is proved. For one thing, they say, the story has broken at a time when hurricanes are dominating the national news. Moreover, they say, questions of blind trusts and stock transactions may prove too arcane to captivate the average voter.
"I'm not yet convinced that the cloud over Frist is all that dark and all that big," said Stuart Rothenberg of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. "The Democrats are going to have to make the case about party corruption. What's more, this is a stock deal. Partisan people will say this proves a lot. Other people will say, 'Stocks and trusts, I don't know this stuff.' "
Backus disagrees. Average Americans, she said, understand the notion of powerful and privileged people getting sweetheart deals. Many are already suspicious of a Republican Party that pushes tax cuts, bankruptcy policies and other measures that disproportionately benefit the wealthy, she said.
In fact, Backus said, DeLay's controversial dealings with Texas campaign finance laws and legislative redistricting are more difficult to explain than the questions surrounding Frist. "You have to talk a lot of Washington talk" to outline the case against DeLay, she said. People will more readily grasp the implications of a "less-than-blind trust" and GOP leaders who seem more intent on "the interests of their friends than the interests of the American people."
Backus also noted that ethics inquiries sometimes claim unintended victims. For instance, she said, Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales's possible shot at a Supreme Court seat could be complicated by the fact that his Justice Department is scrutinizing the leader of the Senate, which will confirm or reject the next nominee.
Another Democratic consultant, Jim Jordan, said Frist's troubles could prompt other GOP senators to view him warily, just as some House Republicans worry that DeLay's ethical lapses might tarnish them. "The interesting question is whether rank-and-file Republican members decide to try to save themselves by throwing their corrupt leadership overboard," Jordan said.
Charlie Cook of the independent Cook Political Report said the Frist news comes at a time of sagging approval ratings and other problems for the Republican Party. "You wonder if it's death by a thousand cuts," he said. "All these little bitty scandals. Individually they don't amount to much. Collectively they sort of add up."
"The biggest toll," Cook said, "is for Frist's presidential aspirations. They were already on the ropes. He's not gotten good reviews as the Republican leader in the Senate. . . . The guy is pretty damaged merchandise in terms of presidential aspirations."
