Before he takes the stage in Baltimore to formally declare his bid for governor Wednesday evening, Mayor Martin O'Malley (D) will spend the bulk of the day campaigning in the Washington suburbs, putting in high-profile appearances in both Montgomery and Prince George's counties.
The mayor's whirlwind itinerary is testament to a serious shift in Maryland's political landscape -- and underscores the respective challenges he and Montgomery County Executive Douglas M. Duncan face as the 2006 governor's race gets underway in earnest.
O'Malley is striving to become better known in a region with newfound clout in Democratic primaries, while Duncan must find a way to break into Baltimore's expansive media market to be competitive.
Unlike two decades ago, when William Donald Schaefer made the leap from Baltimore to Annapolis, being a popular mayor of Maryland's largest city is no longer enough to guarantee the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Since 1986, the share of Democrats residing in Baltimore and surrounding Baltimore County has waned while Montgomery and Prince George's have grown into the state's most Democrat-rich counties.
"The axis has shifted towards the greater Washington marketplace," said Keith Haller, an independent Maryland pollster. "Especially for the Democratic primary, that is where the attention will be focused."
Nearly one-quarter of Maryland's registered Democrats resided in Baltimore when Schaefer was first elected governor; today, fewer than 15 percent do. The share of Democrats in Baltimore County also has dipped, to about 15 percent. Meanwhile, Montgomery and Prince's George's together account for more than 35 percent of the state's registered Democrats.
While the dynamic should help Duncan's chances, he will enter the race confronting arguably more immense challenges than O'Malley -- which are reflected in early primary polling that show the mayor with a double-digit lead statewide.
Despite a summer-long "listening and learning tour" that has taken him to all corners of the state, Duncan remains a virtual unknown in the Baltimore media market. Baltimore television stretches well beyond the city limits, reaching more than half the state's registered Democrats, including much of the Eastern Shore.
Mike Morrill, a longtime Maryland Democratic operative who has worked for Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski and former governor Parris N. Glendening, said, "People have already formed impressions of the mayor in large parts of the state where Doug is a complete blank slate. It is very difficult for Washington suburban candidates to get media coverage in the Baltimore area and very difficult for them to penetrate the consciousness up here."
That was apparent Friday afternoon, when Duncan's tour took him to Chesapeake City in the northeastern corner of the state. The head of valet parking at an inn where he stopped had never heard of him. Over soda and hors d'oeuvres at the inn, Duncan, who plans to make his bid official this fall, chatted with five Democrats about ways to get better known in Cecil County.
It is territory where O'Malley has quite a profile. Not only do residents see the mayor on TV, but his Irish rock band has made regular appearances at an outdoor stage near the inn.
"His opponent used to come down here and play in the band, so everyone knows him," said Bill Manlove, a county commissioner who is backing Duncan. Asked how Duncan can boost his exposure, Manlove paused and then said: "People are starting to talk a little bit. They ask me what I think of him."
