But Thomas E. Mann of the Brookings Institution said the political conditions may never be right for DeLay's return, even if he wins his case in Texas. "I just think it's very unlikely," he said.
DeLay may continue to wield influence in the House even in the absence of his leadership position. But House members and GOP strategists said DeLay must avoid appearing to be continuing to run the House from the sidelines, lest the rule requiring that he step aside would appear to be a sham.
Meanwhile, the unfolding federal fraud and public corruption investigation into Abramoff's dealings with Indian tribes, Congress and federal agencies is a potentially significant problem for DeLay and the GOP.
Abramoff helped DeLay and conservative Republicans who took control of Congress in the 1990s channel millions of dollars in campaign contributions from traditionally Democratic-leaning K Street lobbyists. Among the well-connected congressional staffers Abramoff hired to lobby with him were several DeLay aides, notably press aide Michael Scanlon, a central figure in the investigation who sources close to the probe have said has been in discussions with prosecutors.
DeLay, who once described Abramoff as a good friend, traveled with an entourage of aides and family members to St. Andrews, Scotland, in 2000 for a luxury golf outing arranged by Abramoff and paid for by two of the lobbyist's clients. DeLay was Abramoff's guest at skyboxes Abramoff maintained at MCI Center and the Redskins' FedEx Field, and his staff members were flown to a Super Bowl game in Florida and to the U.S. Open in Pebble Beach, Calif.
The House ethics committee admonished DeLay three times in the past. And its former chairman was dumped after clashing with DeLay. The committee is still mired in internal disputes, but Democrats and Republicans said yesterday that the committee will probably have to address the DeLay issue next year.
Beyond that, DeLay must win reelection. Last November, he won with 55 percent of the vote, a relatively unimpressive showing for a veteran House leader. As part of a Texas redistricting that DeLay engineered and that led to Republicans gaining five seats in that state, DeLay's district lost some GOP voters. What had been considered a potentially tough campaign became even more difficult with Wednesday's indictment.
Some Republicans were already speaking of DeLay's accomplishments in the past tense yesterday, noting that, whatever happens, he will be remembered as one of the most important architects of modern conservatism. Others said that, however long the odds facing DeLay, they would never rule out the return to power of a politician of such focus, energy, determination and iron will. "Nobody ever got rich writing DeLay's obituary," said former DeLay spokesman Stuart Roy.
