A True-Blue Region Turns a Shade of Red

Converting visits into votes in general election contests for governor and U.S. Senate may prove difficult for Democrats. Longtime residents and elected officials -- past and present -- say state and national party leaders are often out of touch with Southern Maryland's brand of fiscally conservative and socially moderate Democrats.

"They've left us behind," said Democratic Del. John F. Wood Jr., a retired grocer from St. Mary's County who is often at odds with party leaders in Annapolis on taxes, the minimum wage and abortion. "The Democratic Party is not on the same wavelength as people in rural areas."

Southern Maryland echoes regional and national patterns from recent presidential elections showing that the farther voters lived from urban areas, the more likely they were to favor the Republican candidate.

The change in the past decade is perhaps more pronounced because it has coincided with a 66 percent increase in population at the Navy base, from about 12,000 in 1993 to 20,000 this year. Naval installations in the three counties employ 26,000 people, providing nearly one in three jobs, according to an analysis by the Tri-County Council for Southern Maryland.

The arrival of military families and defense contractors to support the base has created a deep pool of Republican voters, said Zach Messitte, director of the Center for the Study of Democracy at St. Mary's College.

In St. Mary's, about 30 miles south of the Capital Beltway, Republicans have closed the voter-registration gap to 3 percentage points, compared with a Democratic edge of 26 percentage points in 1992.

In neighboring Calvert County, Republicans narrowly captured a greater percentage of voter registration in 2003 for the first time in more than 30 years and are holding on to a lead of less than 1 percentage point.

In Charles, Republicans are behind 35 percent to 49 percent. That hasn't stopped Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele (R) from courting black community leaders in the county as he explores a bid for retiring Democratic Sen. Paul S. Sarbanes's seat.

When the Navy brought Montgomery County native Dave Spigler to Southern Maryland in 1979, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by more than 30 percentage points in Calvert County, and he fit in as a Reagan Democrat.

Then, he was a military man trained to be apolitical. But as the once-rural county began to grow around his secluded Lusby subdivision with a view of the Chesapeake Bay, Spigler asked himself, "Why am I holding on to my Democratic affiliation?''

Four years ago, Spigler switched parties. On national issues, the 22-year veteran and 60-year-old father of a Marine said he trusted Republicans more on national security. Locally, he said, the GOP seemed better suited to deal with what he described as "too many people too quickly."

Republicans, he said, "will keep life in Southern Maryland the way we remember it."