Storms Alter Louisiana Politics

Also, Louisiana is likely to lose one of its seven congressional seats -- a prospect that had loomed before the storms and has now been solidified because of the state's population loss.

With Louisiana subject to provisions of the Voting Rights Act requiring the U.S. Justice Department to approve any substantive changes in election districts and processes, national civil rights organizations are keeping close watch on how political power in the state is being reshaped.

"We are concerned that there are both a land grab and a power grab going on," said Theodore M. Shaw, president of the NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund. "If there is not a significant return of black residents to New Orleans in the near future, at what time will there be an attempt to redistrict?"

Although Nagin and other officials have been campaigning to persuade residents to return to New Orleans, it is unclear how many plan to come back. In a survey of 680 randomly selected New Orleans evacuees at eight Houston shelters conducted Sept. 10 to 12 by The Washington Post, the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and the Harvard School of Public Health, about 44 percent said they do not intend to return home.

Already, a Republican congressional candidate has noted that if depopulated parishes are subtracted from his district, Rep. Charlie Melancon (D), who won election with 50.2 percent of the vote in 2004, would have received 43 percent of the vote.

In comments to the Houston Chronicle, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Alphonso Jackson triggered a controversy by acknowledging that New Orleans will lose population because of Katrina, and suggesting that parts of the low-lying Ninth Ward may never be rebuilt.

"Whether we like it or not, New Orleans is not going to be 500,000 people for a long time," he said. "New Orleans is not going to be as black as it was for a long time, if ever again."

Adm. Allen said Wednesday that Louisiana storm victims who need the government's help with housing will be offered choices on where to settle, but only after it is determined that they cannot return to the state. "The premium is going to be placed on putting [people] in Louisiana, because that's the governor's wish, and we support that," he said.

Kim Hunter Reed, Blanco's director of policy and planning, acknowledged the state's interest in retaining its residents, but said the test will be whether southern Louisiana can be rebuilt into a place worth returning to, with jobs, strong schools, health care and housing.

"Obviously, we have a great interest in bringing our citizens who are out of state back to Louisiana as close to their homes as possible and back home," Reed said. "We know our citizens will have a yearning to return home, and we want our state to be ready to receive them."