Other Democrats think it is possible to overstate the significance of Bush's troubles and of voters' inclination to make decisions about who should lead their state based on what is happening in the White House.
"If I'm trying to decide between two guys who I'm going to vote for for governor, I don't run that through a prism of who's running the White House," said Steve Jarding, a Democratic political consultant who ran Warner's campaign in 2001. He said that Virginia's streak of electing governors from the opposite party of the president's "doesn't mean anything."
That said, he agrees that the problems for Bush and national Republicans create a changed environment for the Virginia race.
That change probably will affect the Washington suburbs the most.
"Northern Virginia being so close to Washington and so many people working in the federal government, what goes on [in national politics] is much more important to them," said Allen.
"Off-year elections have always been used to send a message to the president," said Professor Larry J. Sabato of the University of Virginia, an expert on the state's elections.
Because Northern Virginia as a region recently has been more hospitable to Democrats, Moran said he thinks Kaine would do well to appeal to voters who see politics more through the national lens. "Tim is somewhat more moderate than the national Democratic Party, but Kilgore is just as conservative as the national Republican leadership," Moran said. "It is not an unfair" proxy.
Allen and others do not think federal issues work for state candidates. But Allen laughingly acknowledged that he was quick to use voter unhappiness with the first year of President Bill Clinton's administration in his campaign against Mary Sue Terry, the Democratic attorney general.
"One of my favorite lines of that campaign was when I was having a fundraiser" in Pulaski County on the same day Terry was at Sen. John D. Rockefeller's mansion in Washington. "I said, 'I'd rather be eating hot dogs with you in Pulaski County than sipping wine and nibbling cheese with Mary Sue Terry and Hillary Clinton up in Washington, D.C.,' " Allen said.
He said he saw how a loss can energize one's political base.
"My campaign was a good motivator for people who wanted to get back to winning," Allen said.
It's unclear whether such a mood blossomed after last year. A Washington Post poll of Virginia registered voters conducted Sept. 6 through 9 indicated some anger at the president; asked whether Bush's endorsement of Kilgore made them more likely to support him, less likely or had no effect, 45 percent said less likely, compared with 28 percent who said more likely. By comparison, 37 percent said Warner's endorsement of Kaine made them more likely to support the Democrat, compared with 27 percent who said less likely.
Mo Elleithee, communications director for the Kaine campaign, said that voters will decide on which candidate to support based on state issues and that their opinion of how Virginia is being run compared with the national government is a comparison that would help Democrats.
Jarding agreed. "Virginians seem to like the direction Warner took the state and they clearly don't think, according to polls, that President Bush is taking the country in the right direction," he said. "It could be a very small sliver of voters [that makes that analysis], but in a very close race, that could make a difference."
Tim Murtaugh, Kilgore's press secretary, said what happens outside the state is immaterial.
Bush came for a fundraiser for Kilgore in July, and "we're still very pleased to have the support of the leader of the free world," Murtaugh said. He said he did not know whether Bush would return to Virginia before Election Day.
