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Nursing Homes' Hard Choice: Stay or Leave?

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It is on such predictions that Maggard and others have based their decision to stay or go.

"If it's Category 1 or 2, we'll sit it out here," said Gewaldine Cherisme, the receptionist at Heritage Healthcare and Rehabilitation Center, a nursing home in the mandatory evacuation area.

If not, they do have contingency plans to evacuate. "If we leave, we'll leave tomorrow morning," she said.

The Lakeside Pavilion, a pleasant one-story building in a residential neighborhood that looks like an elongated version of the single-family homes around it, can withstand a Category 3 hurricane and storm surge, Maggard said. The home sits just outside the mandatory evacuation area.

"Now, if it comes off the Yucatan as a Category 4 or 5, then I have to live with that decision," Maggard said. "People will second-guess me."

In fact, he has already second-guessed himself. Earlier in the week, after Wilma had swirled up overnight into a Category 5 storm, Maggard said he was certain that he would evacuate. He arranged for two 57-seat buses, as well as for some box trucks to carry mattresses, medicines and other supplies.

But when the forecast intensity dropped to Category 2, he scratched those plans -- though given enough time, they could be resurrected.

The evacuation to prearranged locations in Tampa and Ocala could take as long as six to eight hours, he said.

"You have to weigh every aspect: Can they stand a trip of that magnitude?" he said. What does it do to that dementia or Alzheimer's patient to be taken out of that secure location and . . . thrust into a different situation?"

One of the most difficult aspects has been the shifting forecasts for intensity and timing.

When Hurricane Charley hit last year, they were caught a little off guard, too.

"We thought we were safe and sound, and he turned right at the last minute," Maggard said. "We said, 'Oh, my God.' We were hit with winds of 85 to 100 mph. But we did fine."

With Hurricane Wilma, he said he is glad not to have evacuated earlier, when it was forecast to hit Saturday night.

"One would say it's going to be a Category 2, and then another would say it's going to be a Category 3," he said, referring to the different reports. "It's the uncertainty that has been so difficult. It was a very tough decision."


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