Presidents Past Inspire Bush's Damage Control

The most immediate threat appears to be the CIA leak investigation aimed at White House Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove, the architect of Bush's political successes, and I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, the chief of staff for Vice President Cheney. White House officials fear special counsel Patrick J. Fitzgerald will indict one or both of them before the expiration of a grand jury on Friday.

Because the issues at the center of the investigation involve the justification of the war in Iraq, any indictment could revive debate over Bush's decision to invade at a time of greater attention to the rising casualty count. War critics will use the occasion to raise their own volume; the liberal group MoveOn plans to sponsor candlelight vigils and run television ads asking, "How many more?"

Unlike Clinton or Reagan, who were sustained through second-term crises by support from their respective party bases, Bush for the moment faces the complication of a revolt among conservatives. Anger over the selection of Miers instead of a proven conservative has released pent-up aggravation on the right with other Bush initiatives, including high spending on Hurricane Katrina relief, expanding Medicare entitlements and easing immigration rules.

"Conservatives bit their tongues quite frankly for the last four years," said Richard A. Viguerie, an architect of the conservative movement. "There's a lot of things we're unhappy with." If Bush does not withdraw Miers, he said, it could "doom his second term" because "it'll be very hard to govern without a conservative base."

"These are not the best of times," said Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.), who pointed to polls in his state showing Bush losing support even among hard-core Republicans. "People are your friends when you are up, and people pile on when you are down."

The White House hopes to defuse conservative opposition to Miers by appealing to Republican senators to withhold judgment until Senate hearings scheduled to begin Nov. 7. So far, the Bush team has succeeded in keeping any Senate Republican from overtly opposing Miers. If she can beat the now-lowered expectations at the hearings, the White House hopes Miers can still win confirmation.

Bush's problems are roiling off-year political campaigns. In Virginia, the prospect of a Rove indictment coming just days before the Nov. 8 election has state Republicans on edge. Public and private polls show Republican Jerry W. Kilgore and Democrat Timothy M. Kaine virtually tied as they enter the final two weeks, and internal GOP surveys show incumbent Republican candidates for the House of Delegates losing support in recent days, sources said. As a result, indictments could be devastating to Kilgore and his party.

"Our problem is that our base is depressed because of national events," said one Republican strategist who declined to be identified. "It has a huge impact on the electorate."

For a White House used to operating on offense, all this has put it in the unusual, and uncomfortable, position of being on defense. Bush aides hope that will pass if he maintains focus, and they have already begun crafting an agenda for 2006 that he can lay out in his State of the Union address next year, a speech that will likely include proposals for restructuring the tax code and other initiatives.

"There are certainly difficulties and challenges we continue to face," said Bush spokesman Scott McClellan. "The president is going on leading on the priorities the American people care most about and the White House is as well."

Staff writer Michael D. Shear contributed to this report.