From a major Windows upgrade to powerful Web services to high-definition DVD, there's a lot to look forward to in the coming year.
PC World
Sunday, October 30, 2005
12:10 AM
The approaching new year looks to be full of change for the way you work and play with technology. Among the exciting developments heralded for 2006: Advanced Web apps and tools will further blur the line between the desktop and the Internet. The next generation of DVD will arrive at long last, ushering in high-definition recording. Wide-screen LCD monitors will continue to become less expensive and more attractive, while new technologies will begin to boost display quality dramatically. And Microsoft will finally ship its long-awaited Windows Vista operating system.
But the road to these anticipated developments won't be without its share of jolting bumps and potholes. A standards battle is raging between next-generation DVD camps. Vista will require a pretty beefed-up system to run properly. And most of the new monitor models will be priced (at least initially) beyond the means of all but the most well-heeled users. Treat this article as your one-stop guide to some of the hottest new technologies, so you can decide whether they'll be right for your tech needs in 2006.
The Vista-Ready PC
Microsoft's next major operating system looks a lot different from the Windows you're used to seeing. But the parts of it you can't see might be even more important.
"The key to Vista is security, security, security," says Laura DiDio, an analyst with The Yankee Group. And Microsoft is focusing a lot of effort on securing users from the legion of viruses, worms, and other malicious attacks that have become such a serious problem in the last decade.
But security isn't the only focal point of Windows Vista. Also included are additional gaming features, a stronger desktop search function, a reworking of the graphical user interface, compatibility with high-definition TV, and other multimedia tie-ins. What's more, Vista is the first mainstream operating system from Microsoft built to handle 64-bit applications. The new OS should combine with the latest CPUs to improve gaming, system performance, and security.
Of course, exactly what Vista will include remains in flux. Among the rumors that Microsoft won't comment on: Vista may ship in seven different forms, ranging from an ultra-stripped-down version for third-world countries to a full-featured "ultimate" edition with all business and multimedia components included. Not everyone sees such an arrangement as a good idea. "If Microsoft releases Vista in seven flavors, they're going to have a lot of confused consumers on their hands," says Rob Enderle, principal analyst with The Enderle Group.
Right now, Microsoft has lots of concerned customers, primarily because Windows is a favorite target for malicious code writers. Vista aims to thwart attacks in a number of innovative ways. One is by making it easier to create "limited user" accounts, which can be set to allow a user only the most basic rights (the ability to download a graphics driver, say, but not to install an application). In previous versions of Windows, only network administrators could control this.
Another way is by having the OS encrypt all the data on your hard drive by default--the first time Microsoft has offered this level of security, according to DiDio. Vista also will isolate various applications and components, so if a virus comes in through Internet Explorer, the amount of damage it can wreak throughout the OS is limited. "That will basically, if not totally, eliminate the threat [from] IE," says DiDio. "At the very least, it certainly cuts down on the vulnerabilities."
One area where Microsoft is lagging is in desktop search: Google beat the Redmond crew to market with its desktop search application. "Desktop search has been a black hole in Windows for years," says Enderle. So look for Microsoft to provide an improved desktop search function in Vista, along with a new (and better) graphical interface for finding files.
If Windows Vista delivers on most of what Microsoft has promised, what the beta release suggests, and what the rumor mongers predict, it will be a dramatic upgrade. From what we know so far, the outlook for Vista is pretty promising.
Vista's true system requirements are still in flux, but if you aim for a machine with these specs, you should be in great shape when the operating system does roll out.
Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD
Get ready for the next generation of DVD. Unfortunately, a nasty format war will make purchasing a new player rather complicated.
Why the change? The next generation of DVD technology will hit the United States in 2006 to handle the demands of high-definition TV. Two new DVD formats--Blu-ray and High-Density DVD (HD-DVD)--will deliver unparalleled picture clarity for home-recorded content, since they are designed to record high-definition television (HDTV) with no quality loss. What's more, the formats will permit far more data storage than is possible on today's DVDs. Blu-ray discs will hold either 25GB or 50GB of data, depending on whether you use single- or dual-layer discs. HD-DVDs will be 15GB and 30GB. With 25GB of storage, you can record 2 hours of HDTV content or 13 hours of standard-definition television fare. These new discs will allow moviemakers to store high-def films with more room for extras.
But as is the case with so many new technologies, there are some issues. First and foremost, the two next-generation DVD formats jostling for market supremacy are incompatible. If you put on your early adopter hat here, you may find some rough times ahead. For starters, the major movie studios and the consumer electronics manufacturers have divided, aligning with one or the other format. So if you buy a first-version Blu-ray player, you'll be able to watch movies such asThe Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch, and The Wardrobe, from Walt Disney Studios, but notThe Bourne SupremacyorChronicles of Riddick, which are property of Universal Studios, a company aligned with HD-DV
Many observers give the early edge to Blu-ray, with its greater storage capacity, impressive lineup of supporters, and plans for intensive marketing. HD-DVD was supposed to ship in late 2005, but the original release date has now slipped to early 2006, eroding much of the format's first-to-market advantage. One plus for HD-DVD: Its discs are the same physical size as current DVDs (Blu-ray discs are slightly thinner), meaning that creating blank discs and players will be easier and cheaper, which may endear the technology to manufacturers a bit more.
Don't get too upset about the format war, however. Few studios have signed exclusive pacts with either side. And if one format jumps out to a commanding lead, most studios will surely begin offering movies that play in it.
A final thing to watch: Though both Blu-ray and HD-DVD will incorporate the AACS content protection scheme, their policies may differ on a portion of AACS called "managed copy," which would allow consumers to make a limited number of copies of their discs for personal use or backup. Both formats will support managed copy, but at press time the HD-DVD camp had committed to making managed copy mandatory on its discs, while the Blu-ray contingent had not.
No manufacturer we contacted would disclose pricing for its next-generation players, but analysts expect the first versions to sell for about $1000. That price is likely to drop significantly by the end of 2006, due in part to Sony's launch of the PlayStation 3 (see page 110). This gaming unit, which will use Blu-ray technology, is expected to cost less than $500. Its predecessor, the PlayStation 2, helped force a DVD player price drop when it debuted with DVD functionality, and the PS3 will probably have a similar effect.
Stay Organized With Web 2.0 Tools
Soon you'll enjoy amazing, lightweight Web sites that respond like desktop apps.
As with any revolutionary technology, the advance has garnered a slew of names. Some call it Web 2.0. Others call it "Open API," alluding to the sharing of key programming code known as the application program interface. And many are calling it Ajax (for Asynchronous JavaScript and XML), after the coding technology that is changing the way browsers interact with Web data. But regardless of the name used, 2006 will see an outpouring of new Web applications that take advantage of it.
You may be familiar with some of them already. The popular site Widgetgallery.com (formerly known as Konfabulator) hosts more than 1000 small, downloadable apps that run on your desktop but are built with JavaScript and XML like many Web pages. Many of them rely on Web-supplied data to function. Some examples: A small dictionary applet that presents search results from leading dictionary and thesaurus sites. Another operates as a constantly updating traffic cam for your area of choice.
Web-based e-mail lends itself nicely to an Ajax approach, too. When a user clicks a link on a standard Web mail interface or on a Web page, the server must send the user a whole new page. Ajax apps can request specific bits of data and update them on the fly, so a Web mail client can pull down new message headers while you're scrolling through a list, for example. Google's Gmail uses Ajax to present threaded conversations and to drive the alerts that pop up on your desktop to show the first couple of lines of a new message. Both Microsoft and Yahoo are beta-testing Ajax-powered Web mail interfaces that bring the responsiveness and features of desktop mail applications to the Web.
Google Maps is another popular variant of the Web 2.0 concept. It relies on Ajax to enable users to move the map seamlessly in any direction by clicking it and dragging it. Google has also gone a step farther, opening the mapping API to the public, allowing programmers to add their own functionality. HousingMaps.com employs that API to overlay Google's mapping service with Craigslist apartment rental listings, giving users a visual idea of where a rental sits in a city.
But don't plan on counting out desktop apps yet. Not everyone can stay connected all the time. According to David Feldman, an analyst with IDC, "That's where the hype over Web applications leaves reality, with what people do with their computers." What's more, he says, "when you move to serious number crunching or graphics rendering, [a Web-based application] won't work." But network-based and desktop programs aren't an either/or proposition. The wealth of connected applications that will appear in 2006 will simply give all of us more options.
Watch for Falling Wide-Screen Prices
High-end displays get brighter, while wide screens get cheaper and displays get faster.
When the display industry reached its tipping point toward LCDs in 2003--the year liquid-crystal displays first outsold models with cathode-ray tubes--the prevailing argument for buying a flat screen was that it saved desktop space. But because of how LCD monitors display color, they lack the brightness of CRTs; so at the behest of users, companies are scrambling to boost the brightness of new displays. "People really liked the high-end CRTs because of their color brightness and color purity," says Rhoda Alexander, director of monitor research at iSuppli.
Besides providing increased brightness, LED-backlit LCDs will give users truer color representation on their screens. This is because LEDs can generate a richer color spectrum, thanks to the quality of the backlighting. "Current LCDs can show only 70 percent of the color standards," says Bob O'Donnell, an analyst with IDC. "With LED you can surpass the standard and get to the high-definition color levels." This means that when you take a digital camera picture, your LED-backlit monitor will display the same colors that were in your original shot, not a facsimile missing 30 percent of the color spectrum. According to iSuppli's Alexander, the difference can be striking: LED-backlit LCDs have "a significant wow factor," he says.
Don't expect the nosebleed prices of LCD-backlit LCDs to drop significantly in 2006, however. Pricing typically decreases only with competition, and in a nascent market you won't see a host of aggressive new competitors pushing prices south. "There are also a lot of research and development costs that need to get recouped," Alexander points out. "Maybe in 2007 we'll see some significant price drops here."
For buyers who are still on budgets, wide-screen monitors hold more immediate promise. Wide screens will finally make a big splash in the desktop computer market in 2006, and if you work with spreadsheets quite a bit, those displays will make it easier to view lots of columns at once. Many vendors claim that it's possible to view two Word documents side by side with a wide-screen display, but according to iSuppli's Alexander you'll need at least a 23- or 24-inch wide screen for that to work well.
Wide-screen buyers will be glad to know that monitor response time, which affects how fluidly a fast-moving object appears on your display, will improve significantly. In 2004, response times of 25 milliseconds were common. Now you're more likely to find a 12ms or even 8ms model. Those numbers will continue to drop in 2006. You'll notice the change most when viewing movies or playing games. Motion should be smoother, with less ghosting.
Long-Range Wireless Today
Long-distance wireless is coming, but notebook-based WiMax is still some way off.
Despite all the hype surrounding wireless networking, the fact remains that finding a public Wi-Fi connection still takes some work. Next year, finding a wireless connection should start to get easier, thanks to a long-range broadband wireless technology from Intel called WiMax. According to an Intel spokesperson a WiMax signal "can carry 50 miles in tests, but in reality about half that."
The first WiMax version to arrive will be "fixed WiMax," in which a tower beams the WiMax signal and a WiMax router receives it. A Wi-Fi access point then broadcasts the signal its normal 150 feet. So the first versions will obviate only the need to run a cable into your home. The first WiMax-compatible routers have already appeared, with more expected to follow early next year. When "mobile WiMax" arrives in late 2007, WiMax-compatible notebooks will be able to pick up signals directly from the tower, which means that if you're within a tower's extensive range, you'll have a broadband connection.
Look for more municipalities, which may be experimenting with citywide public wireless programs already, to consider fixed WiMax as another option.
If you can't wait wait until 2007 for pervasive wireless Net access, offerings from cellular providers Cingular, Sprint, and Verizon can bridge the gap. All are rolling out their high-speed (400 or 700 kbps, depending on the technology) networks at a rapid clip, with service already available in many metropolitan areas. The programs require a special PC Card modem (Sprint sells a $250 Sierra Wireless AirCard for access to its EvDO network, for example), and the monthly plan doesn't come cheap (usually around $60, depending on service level). Also, keep an eye out for notebooks like Lenovo's ThinkPad Z Series, which you can order with high-speed wireless access built-in.
Apple: Intel Inside
Two worlds will collide in 2006, producing the first systems capable of running both Windows and Mac OS. (Maybe.)
For years, computer users have sought a hybrid. Not a half-electric, half-gasoline motor vehicle, but a computer that combines the elegance of Apple's software design with the raw horsepower of an Intel CPU. In 2006, that dream will come true.
When Apple announced in June 2005 that it was abandoning IBM PowerPC processors in favor of an Intel engine, the blogosphere lit up at the possibility of buying brand-name PCs loaded with Apple's Mac OS X. That won't happen, at least not in a form that Apple will officially sanction. Apple will probably key the final release of its Mac OS for Intel processors to a specific piece of hardware included in the new Intel-based Macs.
That means that the Apple family of computers will suddenly get a much needed power boost, initially in the notebook line. Held back primarily by the IBM-based chips' lack of cooling capability, Apple has struggled to match the chip speed of its Intel-based Windows competitors. With Intel powering its products, Apple will no longer have to cope with this issue.
Don't look for Apple to start marketing Windows-loaded computers anytime soon, though. That hybrid isn't coming. But Apple's next revision of its OS X operating system, code-named Leopard, is likely to arrive in late 2006, which is right around the time Windows Vista hits the shelves. With both platforms running on some of the same processors, the Apple-versus-Microsoft war could heat up.
Also, look for some hacked-together systems (not released by Apple) in which an Apple computer runs Windows or dual-boots both OSs. Asked about that possibility when he made the Intel announcement, Apple CEO Steve Jobs seemed resigned to it. Apple will neither sell nor support such a thing, but "that doesn't preclude someone from running [Windows] on a Mac," he said. "They probably will."
Xbox 360
Gamers, get your thumb muscles in shape--2006 will be a great year for consoles.
Many experts give the early nod to the Sony PlayStation 3, which is due to arrive in the spring. But Sony will have a hard time fending off the Xbox 360, in part because that console debuts roughly four months before Sony's PS3, and in part because Microsoft has lined up an impressive slate of games for this release.
Nintendo looks certain to continue bringing up the rear, but not necessarily for lack of innovation. Nintendo is rethinking one of the gaming world's longest-lasting components: the controller. The company's Revolution controller looks like a television remote, and you hold it the same way. What sets it apart is its array of sensors for detecting its own physical motion. If you're playing a fly-fishing game, for example, you might have to make the fly-fishing motion with your hand and wrist, not simply push buttons. Another cool Nintendo feature: Revolution owners will be able to download and play any game from the Nintendo catalog, including games designed for the original Nintendo Entertainment System from 1985. Microsoft and Sony will feature backward compatibility in their devices, too, but only going back to the last console they released.
Microsoft has specified two pricing tiers for the Xbox 360. The Xbox 360 model will cost $399; along with nonessential hardware add-ons (faceplates and the like), it will include a 20GB detachable hard drive and a "Silver" subscription to the Xbox Live online gaming service, which allows users to chat with other gamers, transmit voice and text messages, and access content from Xbox Live Arcade. The Xbox 360 Core System, debuting at $299, will consist exclusively of the basic hardware setup, with no Xbox Live component or detachable hard drive. At press time, neither Sony nor Nintendo had announced pricing plans.
Here's how the units compare on one key spec: Sony and Microsoft will have 3.2-GHz multicore processors in their respective devices. And Nintendo will pack IBM's "Broadway" processor into its device's slim, black frame. The processing power in the new consoles is 35 times and 15 times as strong as that of each machine's predecessor, respectively. Those numbers translate into cleaner, sharper graphics and faster game play when more objects are on the screen.
Impressive stuff. If you have delayed buying a gaming unit or have long resisted the urge to revisit your teenage gaming years, the arrival of this potent group of consoles will soon make that temptation a whole lot harder to fight off.
If you're looking for a next-generation console this holiday season, your only choice is the Xbox 360. But do yourself a favor and opt for the full $399 package rather than the $299 Core System. Most gamers will want the $100 hard drive, the $50 wireless controller, and the $40 HD video cable--all of which come with the full system--eventually anyway, so paying the extra $100 up front is worth it.