Buffeted With Problems, Bush Must Chart a Recovery

Ticking off a list that includes a looming winter energy crisis because of high heating oil and natural gas prices, an immigration fight that could further divide his party, negative perceptions of the economy despite strong growth numbers, and overall pessimism about the direction of the country, he added: "It's not like it's a one-shot deal where they hit bottom and then bounce back. I'm not sure they've reached bottom yet."

One immediate question is how Bush will respond to the indictment of Libby and the still-unresolved situation of White House Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove. His statement on Friday after special prosecutor Patrick J. Fitzgerald outlined the perjury and obstruction charges against Libby was terse and narrowly focused on Libby's situation. Will he use the fact of an ongoing criminal proceeding to avoid offering the public a full accounting of what happened inside his own White House in the unveiling of CIA operative Valerie Plame?

Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman said presidential actions will speak louder than words. "What American people want in response to challenges is not talk but government leaders that smartly adapt," he said, adding that Bush has done so during past challenges.

Other presidents in trouble have reached for new advisers to signal a fresh start in hopes of rebuilding confidence in their administrations. "An apparent willingness to clean house and to look for people who are not immediately compromised with some of the substantive issues here -- namely the war -- might help," said Walter Dean Burnham, a professor of government at the University of Texas.

That worked well for former president Ronald Reagan after the Iran-contra scandal pushed his approval ratings even lower than Bush's are today. Reagan recruited former senator Howard Baker as his new chief of staff and brought in several other officials without long ties to the administration. But one presidential adviser said a new team is not necessarily the answer Bush is looking for.

"He wants to achieve real things in his second term," a senior official said. "He will make sure he has an agenda and the people around him to fill it. But he is not the type, just because a critic or supporter says you've got to make this change or that [to do so]. . . . He has seen past presidents who made changes in the White House and it didn't accomplish what they hoped it would."

With more than three years left in his presidency, Bush has ample time to regain his footing, according to several presidential scholars. Bruce Buchanan, a professor of government at the University of Texas, said: "He has the resources as the incumbent president to change the subject, to change personnel, to change the message of the day, to get something out that says he's going in a fresh direction. But will he triumph like he did in his first term? Unlikely."

Bartlett agreed that turning around public opinion on both domestic issues and Iraq will take time. "When you have GDP [gross domestic product] numbers like we had yesterday [Friday] showing robust growth despite the challenges of Katrina, it's quite remarkable, but the overhang of energy prices is souring people's view of the economy. That's not easy to overcome overnight."

On Iraq, he noted that attitudes toward the war are by now deeply entrenched and said the president will continue to make the case that success there is directly linked to success in fighting terrorism, but as with the domestic economy, the White House team expects no easy breakthrough in public opinion. "We believe that's going to require a sustained effort," he said.

Bush also must consider the degree to which Cheney has now become a liability in his efforts to recover politically. Two Republicans privately said yesterday the taciturn Cheney has become a major burden to the president, and that his association with an unpopular war and proximity to the Libby embarrassment will eat at the administration's credibility. "This 'I'm a sphinx' gig just doesn't get it any more," one of the GOP strategists said.

Democratic pollster Geoffrey Garin said Bush faces bad choices as he attempts to regain momentum. The Miers episode raised questions about his judgment and decisiveness, while the leak investigation has raised questions about the administration's ethics.

"He can try to retreat to his base and make them happy, but that will come at great expense," Garin said. "Or his other option is to try to be what he hasn't been up to now, which is a president of consensus who tries to govern from the center. But we saw the toll that he pays from the right for that. So at the moment, he seems to be much more a captive of events."

Events, however, can energize a president as well torment him. Early in Bush's presidency, for example, many saw Bush bleeding influence; the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks infused him with new purpose and public support.

James W. Ceaser, professor of politics at the University of Virginia, said there are too many levers at the disposal of a president to leave him without prospects of recovery in times of crisis. The question is how Bush now deals with them. "Looking at things from a distance, you can't go eight years without some of these things," he said. "Now you have to go about doing something about them."