Kaine Inches Ahead In Va. Race, Poll Finds

"I want to send a message that the arrogance of George Bush is not to be accepted," said William Gill, 66, an retired educator in eastern Prince William County. Gill said he has voted Republican and Democratic in the past, but he is likely to vote for Kaine.

"I'm disappointed in the war," Gill said. "I'm disappointed in the ethics of the Republicans."

Positives and Negatives

For Kaine, the poll confirms a basic truth about Virginia: It's a hard state for Democrats to crack.

Although the poll suggests that many issues are working in his favor, Kaine leads Kilgore by a small amount. Senior Democrats in Virginia said they believe Kaine must be ahead by at least five percentage points going into Election Day. They noted that Warner was ahead by 10 percentage points with a week left in 2001, but he won by half that.

Kilgore ads that accuse Kaine of wanting to raise taxes appear to have had an effect. Voters who say taxes are their top concern are backing Kilgore by 3 to 1. And concern about taxes ranks among the top three issues for voters, behind public education and handling of the state budget.

On public education concerns, voters give the edge to Kaine. Seventy percent say Kaine would improve public schools, and 52 percent say the same of Kilgore.

"I'm really more interested in education and the economy," said Martha Moore, 56, an elementary reading specialist in Smyth County. "Education tends to be better funded with Democrats, whether on the state or national level."

Kaine is seen by a majority of voters as having run an honest, straightforward campaign. Sixty percent say he has been "honest in his political dealings" and fewer than half believe he would "say anything" to get elected.

Kaine has run some ads that accuse Kilgore of robbing money from education and of being in the pocket of big drug companies. But most voters do not seem to hold those ads against him.

Close to 60 percent say they think he is running a positive campaign, and 33 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him. Forty-three percent have an unfavorable opinion of Kilgore.

Kaine appears to benefit from his association with Warner, who is featured in several television ads with Kaine. Eight out of 10 people said they approve of the way Warner is handing his job, and 70 percent think the state is headed in the right direction. Four years ago, Warner focused extra effort on southwest Virginia and other rural communities. Kaine's advisers have said their target is the state's growing suburbs around Washington and Richmond and in Hampton Roads.

The poll shows Kaine comfortably ahead in Northern Virginia. Democrats have done consistently well in Arlington and Alexandria, and the poll shows Kaine ahead by six percentage points in the outer suburbs, which include western Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William, where the GOP is traditionally strong. Not all regions had a sufficient sample size in the poll to allow for regional analysis.

Three weeks ago, Kaine began running ads in which he proposes giving local governments new power to stop development until road capacity is adequate. Those ads appear to be working; three-quarters say they support such a plan, although a similar number say they like Kilgore's plan for local tax referendums to raise money for roads.

Kaine's biggest advantage, however, might be among independent voters, where he leads Kilgore 52 to 33 percent. Almost half of independents think Kilgore is "too conservative," and less than a third say Kaine is "too liberal" for Virginia.

Three-fourths of all independents say they believe Kaine will enforce the death penalty, despite his religious opposition to it.

"Kaine is taking a principled stand against the death penalty, consistent with his Roman Catholic faith," said David Gambill, 54, a retail sales merchandiser from the Richmond suburbs. Asked whether he thinks Kaine would enforce the death penalty, if elected, Gambill said: "I'm sure he will. I'm opposed to the death penalty, but if I were the governor, you gotta do it."

Staff writer Robert Barnes and polling director Richard Morin contributed to this report.