Voter Anger Might Mean an Electoral Shift in '06

In another indication of unrest, a majority now say they have little or no confidence in the government in Washington to solve problems, another statistic that is similar to findings at this point 12 years ago. Confidence deteriorated steadily throughout 1994.

When asked which party they trusted to handle the main problems facing the nation, registered voters preferred Democrats by 49 percent to 38 percent. On the eve of the 2002 midterms, when the GOP defied historical trends by gaining House and Senate seats, Republicans led on that question among those most likely to vote by 51 percent to 39 percent.

None of these results can be used to predict the future, but together they explain why many GOP strategists privately are in such an anxious mood. One claimed that this is the most sour environment for the party in power since 1994, when Democrats lost 53 House and seven Senate seats and surrendered their majority. Another said Republicans have not faced such potential backlash since 1982, when the party lost 26 House seats in the midst of a recession.

GOP candidates running as challengers or in districts without an incumbent in the race have begun to separate themselves from the problems in Washington, which range from the unpopularity of the Iraq war to the ethical problems of Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Tex.), the former House majority leader.

"I think people are angry and concerned about what's going on in Washington," said Rick O'Donnell, a Republican candidate in Colorado's 7th District, a swing district considered one of the most competitive in the nation. "I don't have to defend what's happened in Washington. If the party made mistakes, I'm going to say so. I'm not necessarily going to Washington for the same old, same old."

Democratic candidates are optimistic but well aware of the GOP's political arsenal, which includes an ample treasury and a tested turnout operation. "At this point the climate is positive for a Democratic candidate because there is trepidation about this Congress and the administration," said Ed Perlmutter, one of several Democrats running in the same Colorado district as O'Donnell. "Whether that remains a year from now is another story. Republicans have been resilient and very disciplined in the way they stay on message and win campaigns."

Iraq a Key Concern

Pat Swensen, 61, stood on a chilly night with more than a dozen others at a busy intersection in Coon Rapids, Minn., and held a candle in honor and sorrow over the 2,000th American casualty in Iraq. Her niece's husband, an Army soldier, is preparing for a third deployment to Iraq.

"What's so difficult is there is no plan," said Swensen, an assistant registrar at a school in Ham Lake. "Nothing concrete that you can start measuring and say, 'We've done this, we've done that, the troops can start coming home.' How many times will my niece's husband have to go back?"

Swensen's question echoes across the country, among those who backed the war from the beginning and among those who opposed it.

The Post-ABC poll found that 68 percent of Americans say the country is off track, with only 30 percent saying things are going in the right direction. Among those who offered a pessimistic assessment, 30 percent cited one of a basket of economic issues: gas prices, jobs, incomes, inflation, the deficit. This downbeat mood has so far been impervious to strong economic news, including the recent announcement of a 3.8 percent annual growth rate in the third quarter.

"The big concern is the economy," said Nancy Emerick, a Toledo, Ohio, librarian. "There are still layoffs all the time in Toledo. [Auto parts maker] Dana, one of our biggest employers, is cutting jobs. My husband lost his job a couple years ago; he's working now, but he's not making what he did."

The president's Supreme Court nominations, for all the intensity they generate in Washington, do not appear to be significant issues with most voters. Nor did the controversy over the CIA leak case, including the recent indictment of Vice President Cheney's former chief of staff, I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, register significantly in voter interviews.