Voter Anger Might Mean an Electoral Shift in '06

But anguish about Iraq comes through unmistakably in conversations at shopping malls, coffee shops and on doorsteps around the country. In the Post-ABC poll, 21 percent of those dissatisfied with the direction of the country cited Iraq as the principal reason.

Kerry Parker, a veterinarian from Lakewood, Colo., opposed the war and believes the administration misled the country about the reasons for the invasion. But like many others, she opposes a hasty withdrawal. "I think that, if we get out, it's just going to go back into chaos with infighting," she said. "There's no one in control over there, and when you take the kingpin species out of the area, everybody else fights. We're trying to establish order and I think we should finish what we started."

Some Americans agree with the president that Iraq is the key to protecting America from terrorism. Others say the United States has already accomplished something positive.

"I think we've accomplished a lot of good," said Frank Erisman, who lives outside Denver. "I think there's a despot [former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein] who's not in power. Who knows what the future is going to be? I think the seeds of discontent are in that part of the world and have been for centuries. We're fooling ourselves thinking we can for all time make it different, but I believe that we have made a difference in a lot of lives."

John Lebenick, a retired engineer attending a congressional town hall meeting near Reading, Pa., said, "I don't like what they're doing in the Middle East." The revelations about intelligence failures in Iraq have left a deep impression on him. "People are going to see this war bogging down and they haven't been told much of the truth."

In Columbus, Army Sgt. Stephen Yeager was home last week from assignment in Iraq. He did not agree with the deployment when it was ordered but has come to believe the United States must stay the longer he has been in Baghdad.

"It is very moving to see the Iraqis," he said. "At first they were pretty hostile, but they are really coming around. And now you see them volunteering for their army, even though they get hit very hard, much harder than we do. But the terrorists are still too strong for them to handle themselves, so we have to stay and help them."

Negatives for Both Parties

Democrats see hopeful signs in an uneasy public mood. In the Post-ABC poll, Americans prefer the opposition party to congressional Republicans on every issue measured but one, including Iraq. The only exception was on terrorism; there the two parties are tied.

But those strengths are offset by two glaring weaknesses. A majority of Americans say the Democrats are not offering the country a clear direction that is different from the Republicans, and on the question of which party has stronger leaders, Republicans thump the Democrats by 51 percent to 35 percent.

"I just think they're sitting back waiting for something to happen," said Diane Mashman, a retired high school teacher who lives in the Denver suburbs and generally votes Democratic. "I don't know if they have anybody ready to run for president. They need to get their act together."

Ask people to name attractive Democratic leaders and they hesitate, pause or come up empty. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York enjoys clear support, but even several who said positive things about her questioned whether she could win the presidency, given the controversy that attaches to her history and name.

Republicans have their own divisions to deal with, from ethics scandals in Ohio to conflicts between conservatives and moderates. Prospective Republican candidates fear they will be caught in the fallout next year.

Republican state Rep. Jim Knoblach is running for Congress in Minnesota's 6th District, an open seat. "I've waited my whole life for a Republican president, Republican House and Republican Senate," he said. "Somehow I expected something more. There's a general uncomfortable feeling in the public, too. So many things are so unsustainable at the federal level."

The Post-ABC News poll shows that moderate Republicans are more unhappy with their party than are conservatives. Bush's approval rating stands at 61 percent among GOP moderates, compared with 89 percent among conservatives.

Other Americans are simply fed up with what they see as the "gotcha culture" of Washington. "It's hard to know the truth coming out of Washington," said Stephen Libor of Andover, Minn. " 'This guy did this, this guy did that.' It seems there's no love, kindness or understanding of other people. It's just, 'Nail 'em!' "

The Power of Incumbency

As ever in politics, a measure of caution is justified in predicting trends. Stuart Rothenberg, a prominent independent political analyst, wrote a recent column in Roll Call debunking suggestions that there may be 100 competitive House races next year.

At this point, he counts fewer than 40, although he said that could grow to 50 or 55 by the time of the election. Democrats will need some breaks to pick up the 15 seats needed to take back control, but Rothenberg said conditions have deteriorated enough to make that possible: "It's not just a cool breeze in their face, it's a strong gust."

Adding to the Democrats' challenge is the fact that there are only 18 Republican-held seats in districts that voted for Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) in last year's presidential race, compared with 41 districts held by Democrats that were carried by Bush.

Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.) is in one of those Kerry districts, in the Philadelphia suburbs and beyond. Mindful of Congress's and Bush's plummeting popularity, Gerlach walks a tightrope with voters. "I may agree with the president on some issues," he said, "but I don't agree with him about everything" -- most prominently Bush's effort to overhaul Social Security by introducing private accounts.

In the Senate, there are perhaps half a dozen GOP seats at risk and a handful of potentially competitive races in states held by the Democrats. Vulnerable Republican seats include Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Missouri and Ohio. Democrats would have to win virtually every competitive race to retake the Senate, while avoiding losses of their own. Sometimes races all break in one direction, but not always.

In recent elections, parties have made their biggest gains in Senate seats where no incumbent was running, but at this point, nearly all the GOP-held seats at risk require the Democrats to defeat the incumbent. "The fact that Democrats have to knock off five Republican incumbents to get the Senate back makes it hard," said Charlie Cook, who produces a leading independent political forecast.

Those watching the public mood most closely today are the candidates gearing up for next year. In Minnesota, state Rep. Philip Krinkie is seeking the GOP nomination in the 6th District, which wraps around the northern edges of the Twin Cities. Bush carried the district handily in 2000 and 2004, and while Krinkie, if he becomes the party's nominee next year, would welcome Bush's help, he recognizes that the president may not be as big an asset as he was in 2002.

"The word I hear most often is 'disappointment,' " he said. "There's some skepticism, some doubt: 'I voted for President Bush. How come he hasn't done a better job?' There's some discontentment. There's a drumbeat in the district, but it hasn't gotten to be loud voices of objection."

Staff writer David S. Broder, polling director Richard Morin and assistant polling director Claudia Deane contributed to this report.