In Close Race, Kaine, Kilgore Focus on Identity Over the Issues

History favors a strong Republican finish on Election Day.

Democratic political consultant Steve Jarding, who managed Warner's campaign in 2001, noted: "Clearly, the trend lines are in Kaine's favor. But what would make me very nervous is the absolute, almost empirical evidence that at the end of the election in Virginia, Republicans tend to come home."

But this isn't a normal year in a state that hasn't supported a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. President Bush's popularity has collapsed, and the bad news and scandals that have dogged the national Republicans resonate in populous Northern Virginia. Bush will attend an election-eve rally Monday night for Kilgore in Richmond.

And state Sen. H. Russell Potts Jr. (R-Winchester), whose independent campaign stagnated at 4 percent in the polls, nevertheless is drawing some votes that in this close race could be crucial.

Contented Commonwealth

If ever the only-in-Virginia ban on governors serving consecutive terms vexed an incumbent, it would have to be this year. The environment for Warner's reelection could hardly be rosier.

Polls show him with a job approval rating approaching 80 percent. Warner's battles to fix the state's finances and his middle-of-the-road political philosophy have won converts among many former critics.

Unable to run, the best Warner could do was set the stage for Kaine: The Post poll indicated that 70 percent of voters believed "things in the state of Virginia are generally going in the right direction."

"On any measurement, Virginia has made some great progress," Warner said. "We now have a choice about whether we continue that same approach."

Kilgore retains the advantage that comes with being a Republican in a generally conservative state, but the political environment has become less inviting. Just a year after Bush took nearly 54 percent of the vote in Virginia, a majority of the state's voters disapprove of the way he is handling his job. Only about a third of Virginians think the country is headed in the right direction.

"Let's face it, there have been better times to be a Republican candidate than November 2005," said state Sen. William C. Mims (R-Loudoun).

Kilgore Attacks

Kilgore started his campaign determined to define Kaine based on the Democrat's positions on the death penalty, abortion, taxes and other volatile issues. Collectively, his advisers believed, the attacks would add up to a picture of a man out of touch with Virginians and very unlike Warner.

"It was very easy [in 2001 for Warner] to portray himself as something that we found out later that he wasn't. He didn't have a record," said GOP strategist Chris LaCivita, who has advised the Kilgore campaign. "The lessons of 2001 have been applied."