For GOP, 2006 Now Looms Much Larger

For Bush, the results from Tuesday and a succession of new polls showing him at the lowest point of his presidency mean further tensions with congressional Republicans. "It creates an environment where individual members start looking out for themselves rather than the whole team," Republican pollster Bill McInturff said.

Bush put his prestige on the line with an election-eve visit to Virginia and now must live with the reality that some Republicans may be reluctant to have the president campaign for them next year. Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-Ariz.) told radio show host Don Imus yesterday that he does not want the president's help: "No, not at this time." Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.), facing a tough reelection race next year, will not appear at a Bush event in Pennsylvania on Friday but said he welcomes Bush in the state in the future.

Three years ago, when Republicans defied history by picking up seats in the 2002 midterm elections, Bush played a crucial role in motivating GOP voters and was widely seen as a major asset in that and the 2004 campaigns. But Mehlman said yesterday that if Republican candidates do not think Bush will help, the president will stay away. "Where people want him to be helpful, he will be helpful," Mehlman told reporters in a conference call.

Party leaders offered competing analyses of the results. Mehlman said they were not tied to Bush's popularity, noting that Republicans lost New Jersey and Virginia four years ago when the president's approval rating was at 87 percent.

Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) said he would be crowing as the Democrats were doing had the results gone the other way, but he added: "I don't think there's a lot to read into it. The incumbent parties retained what they had."

Ed Goeas, a Republican pollster, called the results "a lot of ado about nothing." He said that while Bush's popularity is down, the mood of the country is neither anti-Republican nor anti-incumbent.

But Sen. Charles E. Schumer (N.Y.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, called Tuesday's results "a clear repudiation of George W. Bush and the Republican agenda."

Republicans grumbled privately about the losing Virginia gubernatorial campaign of Republican Jerry W. Kilgore, but some GOP strategists said the real problem is finding an agenda that can rally the party and shake up the political environment. One strategist said that, given the mood of voters, Republicans escaped a much worse outcome Tuesday, but he was gloomy about what the GOP can do next.

"We're tapped out on taxes," he said, asking not to be identified to offer a more candid analysis. "We failed on Social Security. We're nowhere on health care. Medicare didn't do it. The war's not going well. The economy's in fact going well, but we're not getting credit for it."

Washingtonpost.com staff writer Chris Cillizza contributed to this report.