Are Democrats Riding a National Wave?

The fact that Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tim Kaine won by a healthy margin of six percentage points when preelection polls were calling the race a dead heat may say something about the environment in a state that has been generally Republican for years. More important was the fact that Kaine won not only in Democratic strongholds in the Northern Virginia suburbs but in more traditionally conservative places like Virginia Beach.

Kaine hitched himself to popular Democratic incumbent Mark Warner, and his victory could send an important message to national Democratic leaders who have fumbled trying to communicate a coherent agenda. For Democrats in Washington, struggling to find a message about what to say about massive federal deficits, Warner, and now the Kaine campaign, might serve as an inspiration.

But the Kaine victory may have had as much to do with the changing demographics of Northern Virginia, the state's most populous area, and a backlash against GOP gubernatorial candidate Jerry Kilgore's negative ads than anything having to do with Bush.

The fact that Democrats failed to make inroads in the state's GOP-dominated legislature, and that Republicans appear to have won the two other statewide races (Republican Bob McDonnell holds the tiniest of margins over Democrat Craigh Deeds in the attorney general race, and Bill Bolling claimed the Lt. Governor's office) seem to undercut the major trend theory. The fact is, Virginia is an odd state that continues to elect Democratic governors even as it votes for Republican presidential candidates decade after decade.

All in all, after the 2005 off-year elections it's better to be a Democrat.

"Is it a harbinger?" University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato asked rhetorically of Tuesday's results. "Who knows? But it's unadulterated bad news for Bush and the Republican Party and great news for Democrats as they attempt to make a comeback in 2006."

Ultimately, what this week's elections demonstrate is that, yes, the GOP is in trouble going into 2006. But the roots of that trouble have more to do with the way voters have rejected President Bush and the GOP agenda than any sort of broad public support for Democrats. For as much as the GOP has to fear now about 2006, much will depend on whether the Democrats can produce an agenda to capitalize on Republicans' current weaknesses.

Reporting from the Associated Press was used in this story.