Calls for Shift in Iraq Strategy Growing

As more Iraqi forces are fielded, the Pentagon has indicated that U.S. forces can probably be reduced below this year's base level of about 138,000 troops, although military officials say any reduction will depend on a host of military, political and economic conditions. Some Democrats, such as Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), have urged a sizable cut after the Iraqi elections in December.

But McCain warned that ensuring secure zones, through extensive foot patrols and other troop-intensive operations, will require not only more Iraqi forces but also a sustained U.S. commitment. A strong backer of the Iraq war, McCain called the idea of a partial drawdown of U.S. troops next year "exactly wrong." He said the level "should be ramping up, with more civil-military soldiers, translators and counterinsurgency operations teams."

McCain, who serves on the Senate Armed Services Committee, noted that calls for a shift in counterinsurgency strategy have recently come from such independent defense experts as Andrew F. Krepinevich, executive director of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, and Thomas Donnelly and Gary J. Schmitt of the American Enterprise Institute. They have argued that the establishment of safe zones would allow economic reconstruction and political activity to flourish, and that the zones could then spread -- like "oil spots," as Krepinevich put it in a Foreign Affairs article earlier this year.

U.S. military officers insist the current strategy has succeeded in containing Iraq's insurgency. They cite the thousands of enemy fighters captured or killed, including a number of leaders of the Sunni resistance and senior members of Abu Musab Zarqawi's al Qaeda terrorist network in Iraq.

They say that though the average number of daily attacks has tended to rise this year, the "effectiveness" of such attacks -- in terms of casualties and property damage -- has declined, so that only about 10 to 15 percent are currently rated effective. They also report significant gains in intelligence about insurgent groups, saying that more Iraqis, angered at the violence, are coming forward with tips.

As an example of renewed efforts to hold areas that have been cleared of insurgents, U.S. officers point to Anbar province in western Iraq. Elements of a full Iraqi army division have begun moving into the region, joining several Iraqi special police brigades in establishing permanent bases and providing a substantial government presence in several towns that had been insurgent strongholds.

To bolster security and spur reconstruction activity in other pockets of the country, U.S. officials are borrowing an approach being employed with some success in Afghanistan: the use of "provincial reconstruction teams." These teams combine the skills of State Department political officers, development assistance specialists and military civil affairs soldiers in generating local jobs and hope. Plans call for the first three teams in Iraq to go to Tikrit, Irbil and Hilla, with another dozen or so to follow.

To shore up security in Baghdad, U.S. commanders are pressing Iraqi public order battalions to take responsibility for protecting specific city neighborhoods, rather than roaming freely through the city. "We're looking for more efficient ways to use them and have plotted a strategy in increments of three months that hands them more specific responsibility," a senior officer in Baghdad said in a phone interview.

Staff writer Robin Wright contributed to this report.