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Analysis: Bush Slump May Hobble World Role

Presidents, most recently Bill Clinton, have drawn strength from foreign trips and basked in the approval of American-flag waving crowds. But Bush has drawn muted responses from many world leaders and a larger-than-usual share of anti-American demonstrations.

He never was particularly well-liked overseas, to begin with.


President Bush speaks with Rev. Luis Leon at St. John's Epicscopal Church, following early morning worship services, Sunday, Nov. 13, 2005. President Bush sets out tomorrow on a weeklong trip to Asia, with stops in Japan, China, Mongolia, and South Korea where he will attend the annual Asia-Pacific economic summit. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
President Bush speaks with Rev. Luis Leon at St. John's Epicscopal Church, following early morning worship services, Sunday, Nov. 13, 2005. President Bush sets out tomorrow on a weeklong trip to Asia, with stops in Japan, China, Mongolia, and South Korea where he will attend the annual Asia-Pacific economic summit. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite) (J. Scott Applewhite - AP)

Now, allies might be even more emboldened in opposing positions staked out by the U.S. And antagonistic governments in North Korea, Iran and elsewhere might be less intimidated by Bush's threats, seeing how bogged down the U.S. is in Iraq.

"I think he is less scary to them," said Michael O'Hanlon, a foreign policy specialist at the Brookings Institution.

Iran and North Korea probably are less fearful than before that Bush might use pre-emptive military force against them to accomplish Iraq-style changes in rule, and so, too, are their neighbors, O'Hanlon suggested.

"South Korea, for example, might have worried before about a war with North Korea they did not want. And I think they're probably less worried about it now," he said.

The U.S. still wields enormous influence, of course, if only because it remains the sole military superpower and has the largest economy.

Some recent developments could work to Bush's advantage.

Statements by Iran's new president advocating the destruction of Israel, and recent terrorist attacks on civilians _ such as those last week in Jordan _ might help Bush rally more global support.

Bush's foreign policy agenda remains ambitious and includes the spread of democracy, but he may not have the resources or public support to carry it out. U.S. forces are spread thin in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the public appetite for additional foreign entanglements seems faint.

"At the moment, the administration appears to be trying to stabilize Iraq, destabilize Syria and denuclearize Iran all at the same time. Completely implausible. You can't possibly do all those things at the same time," said James Dobbins, a former Bush envoy to Afghanistan and veteran diplomat.

Dobbins, who now directs the Rand Corp.'s defense policy center, cautions against prematurely counting out Bush's diplomacy.

"Administrations have recovered from worse setbacks than the current administration has suffered," he said. "The administration has still got three years of possibilities for considerable scope."

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EDITOR'S NOTE _ Tom Raum has covered national and international affairs for The Associated Press since 1973.


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