3 Brigades May Be Cut in Iraq Early in 2006

Murtha, in his call for withdrawal last week, also suggested retaining a quick-reaction force in the region as well as Marines within a short sailing time away. Similarly, in an article published by the Center for American Progress last month, Lawrence J. Korb and Brian Katulis, two defense specialists, outlined a plan for redeploying some U.S. forces from Iraq to Kuwait and offshore in the Persian Gulf.

One general involved in the planning said there is some concern about avoiding a perception that the United States, by shifting forces to Kuwait that were intended for Iraq, is beginning a new military buildup in the region.

"We prefer to describe it as shifting troops forward to the region, not building up a force on the border with Iraq," the general said.

All the officers who spoke about the troop plans stressed that final decisions will come only after the Dec. 15 vote. But they described the moves as likely, assuming no major turn for the worse in Iraq. They spoke on the condition of anonymity because they had not been authorized to discuss the plans. They also were unable to provide an exact figure for how many troops would remain in Iraq after the initial reductions take effect next year.

Military officers and defense officials have frequently described the challenge of deciding how many forces to keep in Iraq as a balancing act between trying to provide security and avoiding the appearance of an occupation force that may fuel insurgent violence and engender Iraqi dependence on U.S. assistance.

"The tension that the commanders feel between heavy presence and lower footprint is something they're measuring all the time," Lawrence T. Di Rita, the Pentagon's primary spokesman, said yesterday.

To help gauge the particular impact that growth of Iraq's security forces might have on the pace of a U.S. drawdown, military planners in Baghdad have devised a simple formula -- what one general called a "rough rule of thumb."

The formula estimates that for every three Iraqi battalions and one Iraqi brigade headquarters achieving a readiness rating of level two, a U.S. battalion can be dropped. A level two rating, on a scale of one to four, indicates that a unit is able to take the lead in operations but still requires some U.S. military support.

The withdrawal formula is a planning tool, several officers stressed, not a definitive predictor of how many U.S. forces are likely to leave, or when.

The Iraqi military has experienced rapid growth in combat units this year, but it continues to suffer from much slower development of transportation, engineering and other critical support elements. That will require U.S. forces to provide backup for months, U.S. officers said.

There are also concerns about Iraq's new police force and the presence of militias. Last week, U.S. troops discovered a secret Interior Ministry facility holding more than 170 detainees, many of whom said they had been treated badly. It had been run by members of the Badr Brigade, a Shiite militia loyal to Iraq's largest political faction.

"What it illustrates is that we have failed to form a unified police force," said a U.S. official involved in Iraq policy. "There are now militias all over Iraq that operate freely and as an arm of political coercion."

Iraq's political timetable also will require a substantial U.S. presence next year, officials say. After the Dec. 15 election, Iraqis will need time to form a new government -- that took more than three months after January's vote. The new parliament is then to begin a four-month process of amending the constitution approved in October. Iraqis will then vote in another constitutional referendum.

"The reconciliation process will span a long period of time," said a White House official. "They have significant political benchmarks for the next six months or longer, and we anticipate they'll want us to play an important role in facilitation."