Madame President?

Two political veterans argue that the 2008 election may be shaped by two very different women.

THE CASE FOR HILLARY CLINTON

By Susan Estrich

Regan. 275 pp. $25.95

CONDI VS. HILLARY

The Next Great Presidential Race

By Dick Morris and Eileen McGann

Regan. 326 pp. $25.95

Susan Estrich insists that Hillary Rodham Clinton can be the first female president. Dick Morris says the same thing about Condoleezza Rice. Right now, three years before the next presidential election, I doubt either one has a chance. But I hope they prove me wrong.

As both of these books argue, electing a woman would have a profoundly positive effect on American life and politics. Estrich writes, "It would change the voice of authority that comes into every home in the world every night." Morris and his wife, Eileen McGann, who frequently works as his co-author, add race to gender: "The very fact that an African American woman could actually become president would send a powerful message to every minority child that there is no more ceiling, no more limit for black Americans in elective politics." That's all true. I want my granddaughters to grow up in a country where little girls of any color really can dream of being president (even though Regan, at age 4, favors pink tutus over power suits, and Cecilia, barely a month old, leans toward stretchy, one-piece outfits). So the premise of both books is sound. But their political analysis doesn't quite hang together.

Estrich and Morris are both former Democratic strategists who appear regularly on Fox News, and at times they indulge in the cartoonish blather that replaces serious conversation on many cable outlets. Estrich tells us that Sen. Clinton is surrounded by "unbelievably smart people," that her top aides are "two spectacular women," that she will bring "an extraordinary mind and an extraordinary sensitivity to the White House." Morris depicts Secretary of State Rice as a philosopher-queen who "would bring a Wilsonian vision to the Oval Office, working to chart the way toward a world of democracies." Please, spare us the briefs for beatification.

These authors share another trait common to cable commentators: relentless self-promotion. Estrich keeps mentioning that she was the first female editor of the Harvard Law Review, and the book jacket proclaims her to be "one of the most influential public intellectuals of the century." Even though Morris hates his former boss's wife with awe-inspiring virulence, he can't help himself. He has to claim credit for her recent move toward the political middle. After all, he counseled both Clintons for years before turning against them and has long argued that only centrist Democrats can win the White House. "As I watch her strategies emerge today," Morris writes of his former client, "it seems that my advice is serving as the cornerstone of her current presidential candidacy."

Still, these are two experienced political hands grappling with an important subject. When you get past the towering egos and sterile talking points, they have plenty to say, and they agree on a key fact for 2008: The election will be decided by married white women. That's the group that turned against the Democrats in the last two elections and reduced Clinton's 16-point advantage among all female voters to 11 points for Al Gore and only 3 points for John F. Kerry. And Democrats simply cannot win the presidency without a sizable edge among women.