Bush Faces Dual Challenges on Iraq

Mueller's analysis of public opinion shows that public patience with the war in Iraq has been far more limited than it was during the Vietnam War. Writing in the current issue of Foreign Affairs, he notes that about half of all Americans had judged the war a mistake by early this year, when there were about 1,500 combat deaths in Iraq. In Vietnam, there were 20,000 fatalities by the 1968 Tet offensive, a psychological turning point in the war, when a similar percentage of Americans called that conflict a mistake.

"This lower tolerance for casualties is largely due to the fact that the American public places far less value on the stakes in Iraq than it did on those in Korea and Vietnam," he writes.

Most worrisome to the administration, given overall disapproval of the war, is that a slight majority of Americans now say they believe Bush deliberately misled the country in making the case for war in 2002 and 2003, and only 40 percent say the president is honest and trustworthy -- findings that have registered with seismic significance inside the administration. As Karlyn Bowman, who studies public opinion trends at the American Enterprise Institute, put it: "Is the personal bond broken? That's what they must be worried about."

White House counselor Dan Bartlett acknowledged the concern. "I do think that it demonstrates that if you spend enough money and repeat the charge enough, the old political axiom in Washington can come true: that charges left unanswered can stick," he said. "That's why we felt it important to marshal a vigorous defense by calling out our critics and the transparency of their charges."

Bush launched the counterattack on Veterans Day, and Vice President Cheney has weighed in with harsh criticism of Bush's detractors. Administration officials see it as a necessary prelude to making the case for the president's policies.

One White House official, who was willing to talk candidly about internal strategy only without being identified by name, acknowledged that "those numbers are troubling" in recent polls, but expressed confidence that they will recover because the public fundamentally regards Bush as "a person of honesty and integrity."

What happens on the ground in Iraq will play the largest role in determining whether the public eventually sees Bush's decision to go to war as one worth the cost in lives and dollars. But progress toward a constitutional government in Iraq over the past year has done little to reverse the steady decline in public opinion about the war, in large part because of continuing reports of casualties and violence. Administration officials have signaled that troop levels will begin to decline next year, but not precipitously and not according to any precise timeline. Announcing firm withdrawal dates would only give Iraqi insurgents an incentive to wait out the U.S. presence, administration officials believe.

Mueller said he doubts that additional rhetoric from Bush will help his cause at home, noting the intensity of opposition his policies has already generated. "If someone is strongly opposed [to the war], they're not likely to reverse," he said. "Nor are disaffected Democrats, who have taken the lead on it."

Kull said the best the administration may be able to hope for is a draw in the battle for public opinion. If positive changes occur, from a reduction in violence to a stable government to more international involvement, "then he may come out with a possible modest success out of it," he said. "But it's important to remember there are a lot of forces out there that are very determined to make sure this doesn't look like a success. . . . So it's unlikely it will look like a clear success."

But Bartlett said White House officials do not accept the possibility that Iraq will remain a continuing drag on Bush's presidency. "When you're in a tough spot -- and we're in a tough spot because of the nature of the enemy and the debate at home -- the snapshots will reflect [negative] public opinion," he said. "But we don't think they're permanent."