In Baghdad, Reality Counters Rhetoric

Iraqi soldiers celebrate after a ceremony restoring Iraqi border security in the western city of Qusaybah, along the frontier with Syria. (Pool Photo/by David Furst Via Reuters)

"A withdrawal rate of 40,000 year is doable," said Ali Abdul-Amir Allawi, a former defense minister and now the finance minister. "If the rate of progress of the Iraqi forces continues, then I think we can replace the U.S. forces man-for-man when the Iraqis are battle-ready."

Allawi predicted that violent incidents would decrease next year. But he is not taking the risk of running for parliament in Dec. 15 elections.

He also said he saw a growing movement toward carving Iraq into large regions -- one for Shiites, one for Sunnis, one for Kurds. That notion of division has stoked fears of a civil war among the sects when the Americans leave.

"We see the beginning of that already. All these assassinations every day," said Wael Abdul-Latif, a parliament member who helped write the constitution. "The security is deteriorating. It's becoming worse day by day.

"I think there are 60 to 70 assassinations every day, and most of these are sectarian killings," Latif added. "The Sunni, Kurd and Shiite militias are the ones that control the street. If the multinational forces withdraw in such a situation, there will be even more assassinations, and the government will get weaker."

Back in his electronics shop, Falleh predicted that "if the American troops leave right away, there will be massacres between Sunnis and Shiites. If they go, there will be no law left. But they are a target here," he said. "The U.S. troops make the situation worse."

He paused, struggling to make a choice.

"I guess what I'm saying is that if they stay, they will cause problems. If they leave, they will cause bigger problems."