Buried in Amman's Rubble: Zarqawi's Support

Feeling the heat of public opinion throughout the Arab world, Zarqawi's group has taken the rare step of issuing several Internet statements to justify the hotel attacks in Amman: "Let all know that we have struck only after becoming confident that they are centers for launching war on Islam and supporting Crusaders' presence in Iraq and the Arab peninsula and the presence of the Jews on the land of Palestine." In a subsequent statement, Zarqawi underlined that his organization is not targeting fellow Muslims: "We did not and will not think for one moment to target them," he said.

But the statement showed how tone-deaf to public opinion Zarqawi is, as it promised more "catastrophic" attacks. This inability to live outside his own bubble may well prove to be Zarqawi's undoing. The killing of civilians in Jordan, on top of those in Saudi Arabia, Britain, Indonesia and Egypt has triggered an unprecedented torrent of angry and emotional responses in the Arab world. In a moving article titled "I Am Also Zarqawi" published in the pan-Arab nationalist newspaper al-Quds al-Arabi, Amjad Nasser, an artist who was born and raised in Zarqa, paints a nostalgic portrait of the town. "I am also Zarqawi like many other ordinary people in Jordan, but we are made of a different fiber than the one which hijacked the name of the city and turned it into a banner of blood and death," he wrote.

The dramatic shift in public opinion does not bode well for Zarqawi's al Qaeda branch in Iraq or bin Laden's parent organization. The social environment that supplied them with recruits and refuge is becoming inhospitable.

The implications for Iraq are clear: Integrating the Sunni Arab community into the political process will quicken Zarqawi's end. That requires a critical reassessment of U.S. strategy in Iraq. Social harmony, not the American military presence, is the most effective weapon against the Zarqawi network. As a radical Islamist told me, the longer the war continues, the longer Zarqawi will be around: "But when the conflict is over, Zarqawi cannot survive. He serves no other value to the movement," said this former jihadist leader.

The Bush administration must convince Iraqis and Muslims that U.S. troops will come home sooner, not later, and set a realistic timetable for military withdrawal. Zarqawi's declining popularity does not mean that Muslims are more accepting of the U.S. military presence. Iraq continues to be a recruiting ground for militant jihadist causes. But once Sunni Iraqis are fully brought into the new political order in Baghdad, they will find it in their own interests, as they have already promised, to defeat the terrorists in their midst. It remains up to President Bush to recognize the significance of Islamic and Arabic shifting hearts and extract his forces from Iraq's shifting sands.

Author's e-mail : fgerges@slc.edu

Fawaz Gerges, a professor of Middle Eastern studies and international affairs at Sarah Lawrence College, is the author most recently of "The Far Enemy: Why Jihad Went Global" (Cambridge), which includes research on the insurgents in Iraq.