Republicans Are Split on the Meaning of Kilgore's Loss

Moderates from Northern Virginia, such as Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.) and Prince William Board of County Supervisors Chairman Sean T. Connaughton (R), say Kilgore's failure was not connecting to issues that suburbanites care about: education, traffic and health care.

It is somewhat self-serving for Davis and Connaughton, who harbor ambitions for statewide office in Virginia. If the party concludes that Kilgore lost because he was a mushy centrist, it will not likely choose either Davis or Connaughton the next time around.

It is not only Northern Virginia Republicans who remain uncomfortable with the party's conservative zeal. Most state Senate Republicans, led by Finance Committee Chairman John H. Chichester (R-Northumberland), are hoping to steer the party away from its more ideological roots toward a pragmatic conservatism grounded in what they call good financial management.

They have some allies in the House of Delegates, where several moderate Republicans are hoping the lesson for their party is that being extremist doesn't win legislative elections.

The first test could be right around the corner. Bolling's victory clears the way for Del. Ryan T. McDougle (R-Hanover) to run for the now-vacant Senate seat. A victory by McDougle, which is likely, would clear the way for another special election to fill his House seat.

Republicans have already identified their candidate for McDougle's seat: Chris Peace , a young lobbyist who is eager to make the jump to lawmaking. His selection, however, is causing tension within the party because of his affiliation with the Virginia Conservative Action PAC.

That group was at the forefront of an effort to oust moderate House Republicans who voted for the tax increases in 2004. On their Web site, Peace is listed as the Hanover County coordinator for the group and is pictured with its founder, Jerry Parker , at a victory party after the June primaries.

Conservatives are rallying behind Peace; moderates are vowing he won't get their money. In the end, he's likely to win in a very Republican district. The debate his candidacy has sparked within the Republican Party is a sign of bigger things to come.