By Phebe Marr
Sunday, December 11, 2005

Too much is at stake in Iraq for the United States to pick up and just walk away. While Iraq is not yet a failed state, it is undergoing radical change that could break down at any time if the process toward a more stable government, acceptable to most of its population, is not carefully nurtured and helped.

Americans need to develop the patience to see through a difficult task that has been begun, but is far from complete.

The consequences would reach far beyond the country's borders. A failed state in Iraq would create a long period of instability in an area vital to our own interests. Iraq itself would be unable to export its oil to a world that is heavily dependent upon that resource. The country's instability would spread to its Gulf neighbors on whom we depend for oil -- and military bases; it would allow for the growth of influence from an Iranian government currently hostile to our interests; and it would be likely to provide new refuges for terrorists.

Few recognize just how revolutionary the change is that the United States has already brought to Iraq. It has not only removed the former regime, but the pillars of the state -- the bureaucracy, the Baath class and the military -- leaving a major vacuum in their wake. Once a relatively unified country under the control of a repressive but strong central government, Iraq is becoming a highly decentralized political system under a quasi-federal system.

In any scenario, Iraq is going to have a weak central government and increasingly independent regions and provinces for some time. The Kurds already have semi-independence in the north; there is continued pressure from the leading Shiite party, SCIRI, to create a comparable region out of nine southern provinces -- a potential "Shi'astan." This would leave Baghdad and the minority Sunni provinces in the center and west of the country in limbo, creating a wide area of instability.

The coming election will bring more Sunnis into the government -- a new and hopeful phenomenon. Some of their grievances must be addressed for Iraq's healing to begin. A national army that includes Sunnis and is composed of more than militias must also be constructed. If progress is not made on these two fronts, low-level retribution between Shiites and Sunnis could escalate into a full-scale civil war.

There is little doubt that the United States is caught in a dilemma with no easy solution. By maintaining a visible military presence in Iraq and using American troops to kill Iraqi insurgents, the United States is feeding resentment even from our supporters. But no Iraqi forces, including the strongest militias (the Kurdish peshmergas and the Badr Brigade, which effectively rules parts of southern Iraq), are yet ready to take on the hard-core Islamic radicals; nor is the local Sunni community ready or able to stand up against the extremists in their communities. It is left to the United States -- and its international allies -- to hold off the insurgents, and train and equip replacements before U.S. forces can pick up and go.

The process of creating a stable state in Iraq is underway. More realism is needed about what it will take and the time involved. Continuing a good faith effort should allow a gradual drawdown of U.S. forces over the next several years.

Author's e-mail: Pmarr@USIP.org

Phebe Marr, a historian of modern Iraq, is a senior fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace. The views expressed here are her own.