In Iraq, Bush Pushed For Deadline Democracy

"There was a deliberate hands-offness during Negroponte," said a former State Department official. "We went from blowing hot to blowing cold. . . . Those were his instructions."

Michael Rubin, who worked in Iraq for the U.S. government, said Negroponte served as a necessary transition. "In a multi-course dinner," Rubin said, "he was the sherbet meant to cleanse your palate between courses."

At the White House, however, there was considerable frustration among aides who felt the ambassador was too passive and seemed to consider himself unaccountable to Washington. Looking back, current and former officials said, Negroponte's eight-month stint marked a period of drift followed by a diplomatic void when he abruptly departed to become the new U.S. intelligence director and was not replaced for four months.

He oversaw the January elections, which proved a symbolically powerful moment with Iraqis waving purple-stained fingers indicating they had voted. As negotiations to name a prime minister stalemated, though, Negroponte left the ornate Republican Palace on the banks of the Tigris River and the momentum generated by the election faded. "We stepped back, and back, and then back some more," said a former official. "The thought was good -- we have to now re-gear ourselves down. But then we went too far -- we turned the engine off."

A new interim government was not sworn in until May, three months after the election and six weeks after Negroponte's departure.

"It took the shining moment, where there was so much positive energy, and the negotiations descended into the pettiest infighting," said Les Campbell, the National Democratic Institute's Middle East director, who has made 13 trips to Iraq. "The government that rose from that election never once was able to rise to the hopes generated by that election."

More important was the missed opportunity to capitalize on a Sunni change of heart. In a dramatic shift after the January vote, Sunni groups that had boycotted the election and therefore won only 16 of 275 seats in parliament declared they wanted to help write the constitution. But Shiites and Kurds took until June to add 25 Sunni members and advisers to the constitutional drafting commission -- just two months before the deadline.

As talks opened, Shiite and Kurdish leaders wanted to score the greatest possible gains. "They knew they had the Sunni community at a disadvantage and they decided to forge ahead," Campbell said. "Looking back on it, they may see it as a mistake as it led to a hardening of moderate Sunni attitude."

Another New Face

Zalmay Khalilzad finally arrived in Baghdad in July after four months with no U.S. ambassador. If Negroponte was the anti-Bremer, Khalilzad was the anti-Negroponte. Outgoing, charming and prone to wheedle and cajole until he gets what he wants, Khalilzad was never one to sit on a back bench, but the Afghan-born envoy had to get up to speed and found a jumbled situation as constitutional negotiators bogged down.

Under the Bremer timetable, they had until Aug. 15 to forge a compact resolving the most divisive issues in the new Iraq, such as the role of Islam and rights of women. Sunnis wanted the constitution to preserve a strong central state, while Shiites and Kurds were determined to carve out or preserve autonomy in their regions. But the Sunnis had no cohesive organization; Khalilzad would receive a list of demands from one faction, then a contradictory list from another.

As the deadline approached, Bush and his advisers meeting at his Texas ranch once again were consumed with the same debate as in January -- whether to break the schedule to craft a deal that would satisfy the Sunnis.

Bush, who instinctively dismisses doubters and abhors changing course, again stuck to the plan. "We've got to keep the deadline there to force the parties to make the hard decisions to reach compromise," Bush told advisers, according to Hadley.

With Khalilzad shuttling between parties, Bush delved into the talks personally, calling Shiite leader Abdul Aziz Hakim. "You've got to agree to some things that the Sunnis need to come into the process," Hadley remembered Bush telling Hakim.

This time the deadline passed without agreement. The interim Iraqi parliament just before midnight amended the transitional law to allow more time. It took two more weeks, but over gallons of tea at late-night sessions, the Shiites and Kurds did reach a deal -- bypassing the Sunni Arabs.

Although the deadline had officially passed and the draft constitution was being printed for voters, Khalilzad pressed the Iraqis to keep negotiating. Under his pressure, they finally cut a deal just three days before the Oct. 15 referendum -- they would hold the vote but put off the disputed issues until a new government formed in 2006.

That defused Sunni opposition enough to let the constitution pass, although most Sunnis still voted against it, exposing the fault lines in the new Iraq. Still, more Sunnis participated than in January, with overall turnout rising from about 8.5 million to some 9.8 million. To keep to the script and preserve the sense of momentum, the Bush administration had finessed the deadlines, punted the hard choices to the future and gambled that the Sunnis would continue to participate.

"The one single worst mistake was the rigid, shortsighted adherence to the August 15 deadline," said Jonathan Morrow of the U.S. Institute of Peace, who advised constitutional drafters. That "had consequences for Sunnis buying into the constitutional text. . . . It's a hopeless situation and it's progressively more difficult to remedy."

Fareed Yaseen, an Iraqi official, disagreed: "I used to think that a slight delay might have been useful. But it turned out what was the most important thing was the political process and adhering to it. . . . To get things done in Iraq, you have to have a deadline. If you push it forward, then nothing gets done."

A Vote in Fallujah

In a sign of shifting political winds, the embattled city of Fallujah will be open for voting on Thursday -- with its own Sunnis staffing the polls. In January, few were willing to vote in a city that served as an early bellwether of the insurgency, and election workers had to be imported from elsewhere.

This time, Iraqi and U.S. officials expect a decent turnout. The Association of Muslim Scholars, which called for a boycott in January, now urges followers to vote. Considering the turbulent year, U.S. officials are almost optimistic about the final phase of the Bremer script.

Former undersecretary of defense Douglas J. Feith, a key architect of the war, said the political process has not been perfect but that Bush was right to stick rigorously to the timetable. "That was a calculation," he said. "It involved some risk. It turned out not only not to be a disaster but a great success."

Yet the vote that was supposed to end Iraq's transition will not be the last. The consequence of sticking to the schedule without Sunni agreement will be another year of haggling. The issues that most divide Iraq's factions have been put off until the new government opens a four-month debate on constitutional amendments. If there is agreement, then Iraqis will go to polls again -- part of a compromise that was not part of the Bremer script -- to vote on a revised constitution.

"It remains to be seen whether it works," cautioned Morrow. "We can't assume there will be enthusiasm by the Shiites and Kurdish parties for far-reaching amendments." Without compromise, the danger of civil war deepens.

For all that, some of the administration's toughest critics still see a chance for success. "Despite all the mistakes in our myopic clinging to arbitrary deadlines and our vision of what the political transition and pace should be, and our succession of lost opportunities to broaden the arena, I think we're finally beginning to get it right," said Diamond. "There are some tantalizing signs of a political breakthrough."